A Sea Of Red

Saw this on the news last night and the article in the paper this morning. Can't believe it hasn't already been posted to the board, we as a collective group are slipping:

http://www2.newsadvance.com/news/2010/d ... ar-728155/

Liberty University has announced preliminary plans to build a new facility for its school of aeronautics at Lynchburg Regional Airport to make room for its growing flight school.

The proposed facility would provide additional space for its pilot training program, which has grown from four to 300 students in the past eight years, said the school’s dean, Dave Young, on Monday.

Congrats to Dave Young and Jerry Jr. and on the work they have done to advance the School of Aeronautics and it's success so far.

Old news. It was on the LU splash page 4 days ago:

http://www.liberty.edu/index.cfm?PID=18495&MID=24620

http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2014 ... tage.html/

Republic Airways expects to park some airplanes because of pilot shortage

Republic Airways warned investors Tuesday that a shortage of qualified pilots will likely force it to not fly as many airplanes as it had planned to operate this year.

That is correct. And a lot of the small regionals that feed the majors are paying so little due to tight margins that a lot of young pilots are switching careers to feed their families before they get a shot at the good airline jobs. I have several friends here in Houston who are in different careers after finally giving in to the concept that they couldn't wait for a decent paying job with one of the majors.

dupe

Thats correct Sly ..... Duke due to the shortage they had to extend the mandatory retirement age from 60 to 65 to buy some time, change was needed badly. Industry consolidation to gain pricing control came way too late. In the name of competition the government kept blocking consolidation, and propping up the weak ..... Competition is a great thing but once an industry max's out you have to let the strong start picking off the weak. It just happened, but 20 years too late. Example of how out of whack it had gotten, in 1979 I paid 65 cents a gallon for gas to get to work. Today I pay $3.25. During the same period airfares have remained relatively flat. Aviation fuel has increased the same as gas. The only reason airplanes are still flying people around for airfares similar to those 30 years ago is due to the tremendous financial sacrifices made by your friends and neighbors that work there. Robert Crandall was once ask before a Senate committee what the government could do to help the industry, Robert looked them in the eye and said, The best thing they could do was to leave them alone. He told them to look at the price of a ticket, look at all the taxes, the airlines had become nothing more than a huge tax collecting air of the government.

But I think this is a good time for LU grads to be getting into the industry, not only because of all the retirements coming but consolidation has finally happened. Pilots, mechs should start reaping some reward.

Sly look at this ..... This is why your friends had to hang it up. If this doesn't change there will be huge pilot shortage. I believe it will with consolidation. Fares will have to adjust though.

From 1979 to 2012, the U.S. CPI rose from 72.6 to 229.594 or 216 percent
That means that in constant Year 2000 dollars (in "real" terms), the average round-trip domestic fare fell from $441.69 in 1979 to $266.82 in 2012

Including reservation change fees and bag fees, the average round-trip domestic journey price fell from $442.88 in 1979 to $283.97 in 2012

http://www.airlines.org/Pages/Annual-Ro ... estic.aspx

1978 national average prices:

Cost of a new home: $62,500.00
Cost of a new car: $7,500
Cost of a first-class stamp:$0.13
Cost of a gallon of regular gas: $0.63
Cost of a dozen eggs: $0.82
Cost of a gallon of Milk: $1.71
Cost of a super saver plane ticket LYH-IAH: $425.00

2013 national average prices:

Cost of a new home: $234,000.00
Cost of a new car: $30,000
Cost of a first-class stamp:$0.46
Cost of a gallon of regular gas: $3.45
Cost of a dozen eggs: $3.39
Cost of a gallon of Milk: $3.44
Cost of a super saver plane ticket LYH-IAH: $297.50

Yeah, we have already seen the fare corrections occurring here in Houston after the United-Continental merger. Not only did we lose nearly half our schedule of unprofitable (but convenient for me) flights, but with less competition the prices rose up pretty much across the board. I suspect we'll see the same in American/US Airways hub cities in the next 12 months.

Some guys flying smaller regionals out west are barely making minimum wage. It helps get their hours but not feeding a family.

Sly Fox wrote:Some guys flying smaller regionals out west are barely making minimum wage. It helps get their hours but not feeding a family.

Yea, they are starting them at $21,000 a year. It has to change??

I've seen the best of times and the worst. I'll be retiring in a couple of years, I'm really hoping it gets a lot better for the young guys getting in now. I think it will.

Sly Fox wrote:Yeah, we have already seen the fare corrections occurring here in Houston after the United-Continental merger. Not only did we lose nearly half our schedule of unprofitable (but convenient for me) flights, but with less competition the prices rose up pretty much across the board.

Delta is looking good after the NW merger. I think the AA/US will go well .... Have lots of friends at CO / UA, I'm not sure how the UA/CO deal will turn out. CO was a great airline after Bethune finished with them but UA seems to be destroying it.

Some news for future pilots @ LU aviation

American Eagle News

http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2014 ... ract.html/

Should our pilots ratify it, our industry-leading flow through rights to the largest airline in the world will be significantly enhanced to a level no other carrier can match. Pilots from our company alone will make up a minimum of 50 percent, and in some cases up to 100 percent, of American’s new hire pilots each month. Our flow through will draw more new pilots to our airline, while giving our current pilots a substantial career advantage over pilots at independent regional carriers. This is something independent regional carriers simply can’t offer. It will allow our pilots to more quickly advance from first officer to captain and then on to American. With this progression, and if the TA is ratified, they will enjoy all of the benefits that come with this faster than ever before.

I sat next to a 30-year United pilot on a leg from Phoenix to Houston the other day. He flies 747 wide bodies from SF to Tokyo and the Chinese gates in Beijing, Shanghai & Hong Kong. He echoes TH Spangler's feelings. The United-heritage union pilots are still wrangling with Continental-heritage non-union pilots well after the single carrier certificate was issued. I suspect it will be a similar battle as pilots leverage the American-US Airways merger to better their position.

On a side note, he was quizzing me about my experiences riding in A380s. All of the "If it ain't Boeing, I ain't going" pilots of the Old School are starting to appreciate what those Germans are doing with the new 'Bus aircraft. I hear some A350s are headed to most fo the domestic carriers later this year. The A320s are solid planes. If the A350s can mimmick much of anything fromt he A380 experience then I will be adjusting my flight plans to factor them in.

France lays claim to the Bus, but it's a global cooperation. Parts for it are manufactured around the world. Some finished a/c are now assembled in Alabama. GSO has a master plan in place for a jumbo jet plant at PTI. I wouldn't be surprised to see someone set up there before long. Honda Jet recently open a production facility @ Greensboro.

http://www.airbus.com/company/americas/us/

http://hondajet.honda.com/