[ATrain]

I dont know where they are in the process...so maybe it's not possible...but I wouldnt be shocked if we didnt see this Regal actually go in where they are talking...we've all see deals break last minute



This is just a VERY bad decision by Regal if they continue to go through with it

So what do you know that we don't?

[LUconn]

Nothing. Most people think it's a bad idea.

[Hold My Own]

I dont know where they are in the process...so maybe it's not possible...but I wouldnt be shocked if we didnt see this Regal actually go in where they are talking...we've all see deals break last minute



This is just a VERY bad decision by Regal if they continue to go through with it

So what do you know that we don't?

Its no secret:

1. America as a whole is going away from indoor malls
2. You have confirmation that there will be a new and better mall built just miles away
3. There are rumors of ANOTHER mall being built across town


all these things alone make it a very risky investment...maybe they feel like they can bank enough over the next few years and sell out to LU and market it to them as that could be their new IMax...I'm not sure what they are thinking...I cant reason it at all

[badger74]

After about 30 years in commercial RE I have learned one thing for sure. Today's hot trend is soon to be tomorrow's faded concept. Yes enclosed regionals are out of favor and lifestyle/power centers are in. Both have major weaknesses. For enclosed regionals it's cost to build and cost to operate and maintain. However for an older regional the cost to build is a long sunk cost and the current value is probably well below replacement cost so nobody will build a new one nearby. Lifestyles centers are cheaper to build but to do it nicely it's not really cheap. That means higher rents and than the older mall really needs to earn a decent return so long as they did not overpay for it and it has been years since malls got really high prices--many years.

In a climate like Lynchburg's I think being enclosed is a major advantage--major. Also I think there is much more cross-shopping at an enclosed mall than at most lifestyle centers--especially the long single file layout like that planned at The Colonnade. Also the Colonnade project is not even listed as an active project on the AIG website. They had CBRE trying leasing and they seem to have dropped out. I have more doubts it will ever be built than the theater at River Ridge. But this is what makes RE fun. You actually get to see some results.

http://www.aigbaker.com/brochures/Cross ... 0Final.pdf

[Sly Fox]

Is AIG-Baker a partnership with Baker-Hughes or a fully-owned company by AIG?

It is cool having an industry expert hanging with us in this discussion.

[Hold My Own]

After about 30 years in commercial RE I have learned one thing for sure. Today's hot trend is soon to be tomorrow's faded concept. Yes enclosed regionals are out of favor and lifestyle/power centers are in. Both have major weaknesses. For enclosed regionals it's cost to build and cost to operate and maintain. However for an older regional the cost to build is a long sunk cost and the current value is probably well below replacement cost so nobody will build a new one nearby. Lifestyles centers are cheaper to build but to do it nicely it's not really cheap. That means higher rents and than the older mall really needs to earn a decent return so long as they did not overpay for it and it has been years since malls got really high prices--many years.

In a climate like Lynchburg's I think being enclosed is a major advantage--major. Also I think there is much more cross-shopping at an enclosed mall than at most lifestyle centers--especially the long single file layout like that planned at The Colonnade. Also the Colonnade project is not even listed as an active project on the AIG website. They had CBRE trying leasing and they seem to have dropped out. I have more doubts it will ever be built than the theater at River Ridge. But this is what makes RE fun. You actually get to see some results.

http://www.aigbaker.com/brochures/Cross ... 0Final.pdf

Regardless of whats popular or not, heck even if indoor mall's are the hottest thing in America in a year...do you think the RRM can compete with CC? It would take a lot of $$$ wouldnt you think and IMO more $$$ then could be fetched if sold to a needy corporation or >cough< College <cough>


and agreed Sly there is a lot of knowledge coming from Badger

[rogers3]

After about 30 years in commercial RE ...

Looking at your link, badger, CC looks like nothing more than a big strip center. It was originally touted as being like Short Pump (in Richmond) but it is a far cry from that. It appears as though you would literally have to drive from one place to another as opposed to walking, as you would in a typical outdoor mall venue. I guess that is what happens when you have a ton of land and want to build more cheaply than the developers of facilities such as Short Pump.
Thanks for your added insight- much better than mere speculation!

[Hold My Own]

It was originally touted as being like Short Pump (in Richmond) but it is a far cry from that.

I had my hopes up too...

[LUconn]

wow, that is the first time I've seen any plans like that. How is that an outdoor mall? It's just a plaza like the rest in town. That's not gonna draw regionally. Boo.


I'm so bummed about seeing that. I was excited about having a cool mall like Short Pump.

[Rocketfan]

wow, that is the first time I've seen any plans like that. How is that an outdoor mall? It's just a plaza like the rest in town. That's not gonna draw regionally. Boo.


I'm so bummed about seeing that. I was excited about having a cool mall like Short Pump.

yeah i second this....we need to find quotes on who claimed it would be like Short Pump and find out what plans they looked at??? Either that or they need an eye exam, thats depressing to see.

[ALUmnus]

Yeah, honestly it looks a lot more like the shopping strips in Charlottesville.

[badger74]

Yes, right now it is no Short Pump which I have been to and, as many here, was very impressed. We have to face the fact thet Lynchburg's demos will not attract stores like Nordies, Crate and Barrel, Williiams and Sonoma, Sephora, Tiffany, Barney's and most of the high-end stores. Some of them are just moving into much richer larger second tier cities like Madison, WI which finally got a Sephora and is still waiting on C & B even though it is headquartered just down the road in Chicago. Now American Eagle, Gap, Old Navy are fine for Lynchburg and we have them. Christopher & Banks is another my wife likes for the money. Target, Kohl's, Barnes & Noble, Best Buy, big sporting goods, big hardware, linens etc--all covered. Quite honestly I can't think of too many L could really have that it does not. Dillards might be one but they are not doing all that well nationally with too many stores in the sunbelt. It also overlaps Macy's to a great degree. I'd like to see an upscale grocer like Harris Teeter . I'd love a Costco which is like an upscale Sam's. Obviously a good movie theater is needed and looks to be coming. I'd like some smaller scale things like a good bakery, a good butcher shop, upscale toy store, and more good antique and art stores for the tourists. After that I don't see all that much missing in the L retail mix. For its size L has lots of retail space. The restaurant world has really expanded and we probably are saturated. We still could use a real good seafood place and a few others but there are plenty of good choices in most types.
I think it's better to have one center too few than too many. I am still fully in favor of scraping the old Plaza center. Build a new library twice the size, a nice new residential project, and call it good unless Liberty really has a use for the space itself.

If anyone has other ideas/suggestions I'd love to hear them. It's always hard to see what is not there versus what is not working.

[ATrain]

Badger,
Lynchburg, Appomattox and Farmville had Harris Teeters until Kroger bought them out. I don't think HT will be coming back for a while.

[SuperJon]

What needs to be built is something like Mayfaire Town Center in Wilmington, NC. I haven't been to Short Pump, but I'm assuming it's close to the same.

http://www.mayfairetown.com/

It has a movie theater, shopping, restaurants around the outside, and then it has loft apartments on top of everything. We may not be able to get the exact stores it has in it, but getting stores like them would be great.

http://www.mayfairetown.com/pages/shop/ ... esults.jsp

Some of the stores on that list are upscale but many of them are just regular stores that people go to packed into a nice shopping center.

[ALUmnus]

Harris Teeter and Costco upscale? pffff

[LUconn]

Harris Teeter is upscale. At least in the sense that all of the stuff they sell elsewhere, HT sells for 30% more.

[flamesbball84]

do you folks think an outlet mall could be successful. i've been to a few and loved those things, get some great bargains on brand name stuff...

[badger74]

I have only been to the Teeter in C'Ville and it certainly seemed a step up from Krogers. I was not in L when they were still around town.

As to Costco, well mine carries US Prime steaks, flawless diamonds for prices well into 5 figures, Cartier and other high line watches, real Polo shirts and such for great prices, and lots of other good stuff. Not to mention all the plasma TVs, fresh seafood, etc etc. When my Porsche needs hot new tires I get them at Costco. So yes, I think Costco rocks and around Seattle you see as more Mercedes than Fords in their parking lots. People here love it.

I did think of some other stores that might work--Trader Joes, Coldwater Creek, and Urban Outfitters.

[Hold My Own]

I really believe a short pump "type" would do really well...keep in mind Roanoke is still decent for shopping but a short pump type mall would attract Roanoke and surrounding cities to shop on the weekends and so forth...it doesnt have to be quite as big but maybe just a Phase I with the ability to expand for the future, b/c there is no doubt that one day Lynchburg will be big enough to support a Short Pump and they got in while it was still $$$ smart to get in. Lynchburg really would be a good sport for such a place.

[rogers3]

What needs to be built is something like Mayfaire Town Center in Wilmington, NC. I haven't been to Short Pump, but I'm assuming it's close to the same.

Funny thing SJ, but Mayfaire looks a lot more like the proposed Lakeside development than anything else. Short Pump has no residential component as has been proposed for part of Lakeside. Also, Lakeside has several traffic circles in its plan, similar to the Wilmington center... not that traffic circles get me excited, but apparently, they are the next best thing.

Badger, HT had pulled out of Lynchburg, Blacksburg, and Roanoke, trading sites with Kroger in an effort to focus on areas that have a larger concentration of people with higher levels of education... really. I couldn't believe that they would release a statment like that, but they did. I don't care if you call me uneducated if you just give me a Trader Joe's!

[JDUB]

I think this crossroads place will pull stores from places all over town, but not bring in a ton of new stuff. I can see Macy's and Penny's from the mall, Goody's from candlers station, maybe something else, i can't remember exactly whats over there. Also places from other parts of town that want to be closer to the university, and probably some other stores from the mall.
I think RR will replace Macy's and whatever else just fine, and that the new movies will rejuvenate the mall. It will bring in a ton of people, which in turn will spend money in stores. If they give it a face lift they'll be good to go.

[SuperJon]

I thought theatres in malls were relics of the past. I admit I still find that move baffling. Perhaps the mall's ownership recognized their predicament and gave such great concessions to the theatre company that they really felt compelled to hang with the dinosaurs.

Disagree. See: Coastal Grand Mall. Opened 2004. Myrtle Beach, SC.

http://www.coastalgrand.com/shop/coastal.nsf/index

[SuperJon]

What needs to be built is something like Mayfaire Town Center in Wilmington, NC. I haven't been to Short Pump, but I'm assuming it's close to the same.

Funny thing SJ, but Mayfaire looks a lot more like the proposed Lakeside development than anything else. Short Pump has no residential component as has been proposed for part of Lakeside. Also, Lakeside has several traffic circles in its plan, similar to the Wilmington center... not that traffic circles get me excited, but apparently, they are the next best thing.

Then the one on Lakeside will do very very well. It would do even better in the CC location but it'll do very well right there. We're not talking $300k loft apartments but the market here is a lot different than in Wilmington. We'll see Wyndhurst type prices on the lofts.

[JDUB]

I thought theatres in malls were relics of the past. I admit I still find that move baffling. Perhaps the mall's ownership recognized their predicament and gave such great concessions to the theatre company that they really felt compelled to hang with the dinosaurs.

Disagree. See: Coastal Grand Mall. Opened 2004. Myrtle Beach, SC.

http://www.coastalgrand.com/shop/coastal.nsf/index

all the nice malls i can think of have theaters. south point in durham, alamance crossing in burlington, nc, concord mills right outside charlotte...
these are relatively new malls also

[SuperJon]

Our climate makes indoor malls so much better than outdoor malls. It can rain here at a moment's notice anytime of year, and especially from March through October. It's not much fun to be at an outdoor mall when it's raining, especially if you're traveling to it.