[jbock13]

It's beginning to come to come together now. The faster it comes, the better. The slower it comes, the worse because it will have hotter temps to work with. Line is about to Ohio. The storms out in front of it are not associated with the derecho (just rising air and humidity causing storms heading here, but may not make it).

[BJWilliams]

I was talking to my friend this morning again and from what he could gather (after talking to another meteorologist that he knows) it sounds like something is going to get here but the real bad stuff will be limited more to the Southwest (around Bristol and Abingdon and areas below I-77)

[bradyfan]

There's two major storms that are developing into a possible derecho. The first storm is weaker with wind gust around 40mph. However, the second storm is what I've been hearing people talk about, wind gust are getting to around 80mph in the Chicago area. The second storm is predicted to hit Roanoke around 2pm.

[jbock13]

I was talking to my friend this morning again and from what he could gather (after talking to another meteorologist that he knows) it sounds like something is going to get here but the real bad stuff will be limited more to the Southwest (around Bristol and Abingdon and areas below I-77)

I think he's right. But will still affect us.

brady, I think the question is, how does the first line affect the growth of the second (the one we need to watch out for?) Typically that will zap the energy out of the storm, or at least make it more difficult for a storm to grow.

[BJWilliams]

Thats what Im hearing too...it wont be on the level of three weeks ago but there will at least be something out of it

[jbock13]

CAPE levels are running about 4,000 over the Roanoke Valley right now. That means that the atmosphere is very unstable.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... ?sector=17#

You can see what the levels around 3,000 are doing around the Coal Fields.

One thing to notice, this thing is not nearly as organized as the one before.

[BJWilliams]

I agree. you have a big patch of orange heading for the southwest (toward Bristol), then a smaller cluster heading through WV then in the group around Ohio you have another big group but its not as big as the one from three weeks ago and it looks like it might not hold together as well as that one either

[jbock13]

The more I see of this I think it won't be a big deal. Some people will lose power and 50-60 MPH gusts aren't of the question but not hurricane force gusts for 90 minutes like last time.

But as long as CAPE's are around 4,000, anything can happen. Hopefully the sun stays away as well, as it will only add to the instability.

[jbock13]

Here it comes, it's finally taken form. See that sliding into Charleston? It will continue to build to the north and get us. I still don't think we'll get the worst of it but that looks pretty serious. My guess would be it hits around 4-6 PM.

[Sly Fox]

Looks like Phoenix is getting the brunt of it right now. I'm speaking of the poster and not the little town in the desert.

[BJWilliams]

It looks like the red section heading through Charleston is breaking up as it keeps working Southeast, we may get more yellow than red at this point (just my speculation)

[jbock13]

It looks like the red section heading through Charleston is breaking up as it keeps working Southeast, we may get more yellow than red at this point (just my speculation)

Based on what SPC is saying, I think you could be right.

Wind is still the main threat but it looks like the threat is shifting back east towards Richmond/VA Beach.

[BJWilliams]

At this point, you have a cell around Marlinton, WV that could pose a threat to our area (according to the map I just saw) and and another line that looks like the back end of which could hit the Tri-Cities area in TN

[jbock13]

This wasn't ever going to be as bad as June 29.

[BJWilliams]

I wasnt expecting that either (and neither was my meteorologist friend). it didnt look as well organized once it made its way through WV and it really looked like once it passed CHarleston it lost a lot of its definition and now it just looks like three or four groups of storms not the giant line that came through three weeks ago

[jbock13]

Well remember earlier it looked like Bristol would get the worst. Now it looks like Eastern Virginia gets the worst. It changes that fast.

Part of that was due to the first wave of storms out in front of the main line. Models never picked that up, and it zapped the energy from the main line. They'll now develop over Richmond, where conditions are ripe for severe weather with temps in the upper 90's.

[jcmanson]

I'm glad we have you 2 meteorologists

[jbock13]

I'm glad we have you 2 meteorologists

Fair enough.

[BJWilliams]

I'm glad we have you 2 meteorologists

Actually funny boy, I wouldnt consider myself a meteorologist even with my last couple posts...well read and someone who knows people who would know better sure, but Im not exactly expecting to be seen on your 6 or 11 o'clock news this fall

[Sly Fox]

Been there, done that. And I still wouldn't pretend to have a clue about what a storm sytem is going to do. When I was doing weather we called it informed guessing.

[Cider Jim]

Sly may be old enough to remember this: I miss the days when Mr. Cartoon moonlighted as the weatherman for Huntington's TV station, WSAZ:

[youtube]

[/youtube]

[Sly Fox]

I grew up watching Mr. Cartoon in the '70s and didn't remember him looking that old. But i think he was coloring his hair even then. He did used to do the weather but didn't use the Mr. Cartoon on the chyron if my memory serves me correct.

[thepostman]

between BJ and Jbock it seems we have an expert in everything imaginable. I am not sure what this board with do without them

[BJWilliams]

Be a whole lot less sarcastic?

[jbock13]

between BJ and Jbock it seems we have an expert in everything imaginable. I am not sure what this board with do without them

Politics and weather, yes. Anything else? Nope

To be honest I was just going to update the conditions but BJ had to spend his day either repeating what I was saying or arguing with everything I was saying

You know it wouldn't be FF.com without him!