[Sly Fox]

From the fishwrap ...

Economic woes delay Liberty University development

By Alicia Petska
Published: June 10, 2008


‘I thought it was a good sign he personally came to Lynchburg to talk with us.’
- Jerry Falwell Jr., On the AIG president’s recent visit to the city. AIG is developing Crossroads Colonnade.

The deal to develop Crossroads Colonnade, a major retail project involving Liberty University, is still on, but will be delayed until the nation’s economy rebounds, officials say.

“The developer’s going to keep the contract (to buy) until the economy shows signs of coming back to life,” said LU Chancellor Jerry Falwell Jr. “It still looks like the project’s a go, we’re just waiting for the economy to improve.”

LU is planning to sell 184 acres near its campus to AIG Baker, a commercial developer based in Alabama. Most of the envisioned 900,000 square feet of retail would be in Campbell County, but about 18 acres of it would be in Lynchburg.

The full Crossroads plan encompasses 212 acres and includes residential construction, although no contracts have been announced for that element yet.

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[JDUB]

I know you guys love to debate real estate, and SJ supposedly knows everything about it, so I just thought I'd throw this out there and see what ya'll have to say.
I think if this mall goes in the value of my townhomes will go up bc it is only 3 minutes away. When that mall goes in it will be the anchor to bring people in, and then many other retailers and restaurants will begin to go in around it. Too bad I don't have the money to buy, and I am renting this townhouse.

[LUconn]

I think you're right initially. I'm no professional superjon RE appraiser, but if I recall correctly, commercial development isn't a good boost for long term appreciation. It's temporary. I think. And that's not including any potential negatives about living that close like traffic or punk teenagers always hanging out on your lawn.

[SuperJon]

I know you guys love to debate real estate, and SJ supposedly knows everything about it, so I just thought I'd throw this out there and see what ya'll have to say.
I think if this mall goes in the value of my townhomes will go up bc it is only 3 minutes away. When that mall goes in it will be the anchor to bring people in, and then many other retailers and restaurants will begin to go in around it. Too bad I don't have the money to buy, and I am renting this townhouse.

I never claim to know everything so where that shot came from I don't know. I just work in the business therefore I have more than a working understanding of how it works. When I type something, if it's something I believe, I present it in a way that shows I believe I'm right. There's no use being wishy washy when you write something.

As for your town home, it's really a crap shoot. If this turns out to be a really nice mall and brings in upscale companies, and the residential stuff they add around it is nice (see: Mayfaire Towncenter in Wilmington) then yes, it'll definitely go up. However, if it turns into a local hangout for teenagers and there are problems there, it may go up initially then level out. Like LUconn said, it's going to go up initially. Long-term will depend on whether or not the mall stays clean, in good shape, attracting the right type of people, and how the traffic is.

[SumItUp]

I never claim to know everything so where that shot came from I don't know.

I have never seen a direct quote from you that you claim to know everything. I have seen your responses to other people's opinions that seem like the kind of statements that would come from someone that thinks they know everything there is to know about a particular subject. That is where that came from.

There's no use being wishy washy when you write something.

I agree with this 100%. This reminds me of a recent video clip that I saw.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Qv0aDhqxiHg

[SuperJon]

I have seen your responses to other people's opinions that seem like the kind of statements that would come from someone that thinks they know everything there is to know about a particular subject.

And I said why I did that. I was taught in middle school that whenever you write something, whether it be an essay, a paper, a response to something, an article in the paper, or whatever to write it in a way that sells yourself and sells your opinion. That's what I do. If it comes off that way then oh well, but ask anyone who knows me, I don't think I know everything. I'm always asking questions about stuff so that I can learn more.

[tinytim]

Wow, looks like we've got some brawling to see soon between SuperJon and SumItUp. This looks good.

[badger74]

Well, I have an MBA in investment real estate and 30 years in the business. I think SJ is correct. A new mall near your home might be good or not so good depending how it works out. If it increases traffic near your home, that's a mjor negative. Generally homes near large malls are of less value all things being equal. The overall neighborhood reputation has more impact on the value than anything else. Many higher income people will not even look in southeast Lynchburg near Liberty U. Too much traffic and lots of college kids are not a plus for residential unless you are renting out apartments.

[LUconn]

Do you do the research on property values around potential Starbucks?

[SuperJon]

Well, I have an MBA in investment real estate and 30 years in the business. I think SJ is correct. A new mall near your home might be good or not so good depending how it works out. If it increases traffic near your home, that's a mjor negative. Generally homes near large malls are of less value all things being equal. The overall neighborhood reputation has more impact on the value than anything else. Many higher income people will not even look in southeast Lynchburg near Liberty U. Too much traffic and lots of college kids are not a plus for residential unless you are renting out apartments.

To add to that: Where your town home is may be in a good spot in terms of traffic. Yes, traffic on 29 will increase. However, you have two ways to get to 29 from you home which will help traffic on your road as opposed to just one way to the highway. Also, you've got very accessible roads to still get to Liberty and the Candler's Mtn area. The problem will be the 1-2 miles from your town home to 460.

[rogers3]

Personally, I would like to see the development on Lakeside move forward before a new mall in Campbell County. I also think that the demographics around the Lakeside area are much better than the airport area. What surprises me most is that there are plenty of places where development is moving forward and being started, but two major centers have been put on hold here in the Burg; I guess these developers haven't noticed that Lynchburg has two huge economic engines that are revving up instead of idling down.

[SuperJon]

Personally, I would like to see the development on Lakeside move forward before a new mall in Campbell County. I also think that the demographics around the Lakeside area are much better than the airport area.

Are you saying something on Lakeside for predominantly Lynchburg residents (the proposed Lakeside development) or to draw people to Lynchburg (Crossroads) on Lakeside?

[ATrain]

If you're trying to draw people to Lynchburg, definitely the Campbell County site because its located close to the intersection of two major highways, plus its attractive as parent$ who bring their kid$ to LU can $pend time $hopping not to far from the school.

[JDUB]

The wards road area is the area of Lynchburg that is really being developed now with all of the shopping strips and restaurants. It would only make sense for the airport location to be where the new mall is, plus LU is working with the city and developers on it so its a win-win situation

[tinytim]

What's with the land clearing to the right of 460 W between 29 and airport Rd. Is that were the River Ridge mall is going to move?

[JDUB]

i think they are building another strip there similar to the one Old Navy is in, but I haven't been able to confirm that.

[badger74]

I typically either appraise properties in the $5,000,000 and up class for either investment valuation, lenders, or portfolio valuation purposes. Also do market studies for larger developments like malls and other large scale developments. Before this I did actual investment buying and selling for a large real estate pension fund advisor. I work for one of the major national RE firms.

[SuperJon]

The wards road area is the area of Lynchburg that is really being developed now with all of the shopping strips and restaurants. It would only make sense for the airport location to be where the new mall is, plus LU is working with the city and developers on it so its a win-win situation

That is exactly why I asked what his purpose was for the developing. If it's for primarily Lynchburg residents (i.e. groceries, appliances, movies, entertainment, etc) then Lakeside is great. If it's for primarily people coming from out of the city (Roanoke, Bedford, Danville, Farmville, etc) then the 460 area is great. That's why all of the chain retail shopping stores are in that area and why the grocery stores, Lowe's Hardware, Home Depot, etc are all more inside the city.

[rogers3]

badger, feel free to correct me, but I am under the impression that demographics are drawn from the local area as opposed to areas 30-60 miles away. I don't think the demos around the airport are nearly as good as they are for the Lakeside area when the idea is to draw local shoppers. I've never really considered Lynchburg to be a regional shopping hub, and I'd venture to say that the majority of shoppers at Lynchburg centers are from closer than 30 miles. The development of a center just across the city limits would serve people close by and the students, but would be of little benefit to the city; it would leave some big gaps in the current mall and would further erode the tax base when other current city retailers jump ship and follow. I wonder how much of a difference we'll see in the coming years due to changes in peoples travel patterns; if I were to set up shop somewhere, it would be at Lakeside.

[JDUB]

i think being within walking distance from the school would help keep people coming in, and a mall like they are describing the colonade would draw people from danville and roanoke. There are no nice shopping places around (by nice i mean expensive stuff like J.crew, Ralf Lauren, Jos. A. Banks, etc), so this mall would bring in a lot of visitors. Charlottesville has some nice places, but besides that I don't know of anywhere. A lot of students would shop at the mall, and the boonsboro/forest area would support it well.

[SuperJon]

See, you're looking at it in terms of Lynchburg shoppers and when you look at it through those glasses, you're definitely right.

However, Crossroads is trying to become that regional shopping hub. You don't think of Lynchburg as that right now because there's no big thing to bring you in. If Crossroads is as good as they say it will be then that'll be the one big thing. People will come for that but will also shop the Wards Rd stretch. It being right off the highway from Charlottesville, Danville, and Roanoke make it a much better area for that use than Lakeside.

[badger74]

Retailers like to cluster. There is a land economics theory that major competing stores in the same market area will tend to cluster together because they gain the best advantage that way(or rather remoce the advantage of the other) That's why car dealers cluster in most cities where there is land available. Anyway the junction of the two major highways in town is the obvious number one choice for retail as it is in easy reach of most potential customers. Now we have an isue with congestion in that area which may alienate some shoppers. I think there is large enough market to be served in west/northwest Lynchburg that a mall there makes more sense than another one at 29/460. It will have to be large enough to have enough "pull" to take shoppers away from Wards Road. Pull is measured by mall size and the attractiveness of the stores to your customer base. For the west side I think Target has better pull than another Wal-Mart and other middle to upper end stores would have more pull than lowend discount stores. I think a Trader Joes or maybe a higher end grocery store like Teeters or Whole Foods would also be good. OTOH the mall proposed on the LU site will have a tough time adding much to the mix already on Wards Road. There is only so much retail pie to split and you are not going to draw from much farther away than we already do. Roanoke and Charlottesville already have as good or better retail so they are not coming to shop in L. With Target, Kohls and WalMart already in the area as well as many of the other typical bigbox strores (Old Navy, Best Buy, Barnes and Noble etc) already there I wonder what stores would go into the LU mall. One thing that might work is a Costco but they are all free-standing. Also they might not want to take on Sams Club. Overall L is already pretty well served by retail for the lower to middle income folks. The holes are small and might include a new theaterplex and a handful of ther specialty stores. The upper end is not that well served but it's not too big either. I'd be very cautious about building big new retail in the L area. If they could just upgrade the mall with a better theater plex and upgrade the cosmetics it would take care of most of the leakage in retail in the area.

[rogers3]

Well with River Ridge announcing their new 14 screens, that is the first step for upgrading. I'm not sure why the owners of the mall haven't taken other steps to upgrade. About ten years ago, the mall in Hickory added a parking deck and used the former parking to expand its store offerings ;a mall in Asheville is currently doing the same. River Ridge has great highway access that will improve when the city gets on the ball and widens Candlers Mtn. Rd. (a project which has been on the books for years, but is being hastened by the aging bridge on the westbound side). I'd also have a hard time believing that the "better than thou" citizens of Cville would shop in Lynchburg when they can drive an hour east and shop at Saks and the such in several very high end centers in Richmond. Not to belabor the fuel issue, but I wonder if it could bring another huge change in retail development similar to changes that have come with the indoor malls and now, the outdoor mall/lifestyle centers. To think that developments like Crossroads will continue unchecked in light of the numerous stresses on the economy would be naive. Well, I have worked on one of my customers to look into the Lakeside development; he initially was skeptical about the Lynchburg's ability to handle another one of his stores, but after being in the market for a couple of years, he is developing quite an interest in the northwest area of the city and has now added Lynchburg as a location for expansion.

[badger74]

Good news about that theater. I forgot that one. RR has a good demographics report on their mall site.
Pretty interesting. Lots of lower to low middle and a surprising number over $100K/yr.

http://www.shopriverridgemall.com/shop/ ... penElement

[rogers3]

While that over 100k figure is surprising, even more surprising is what misconceptions get blown out of the water when you compare the percent of low income workers per capita in Lynchburg and our genteel neighbor to the north, Charlottesville. When you start digging, you find that we are not doing all that bad here; if anything, it's probably a blessing that we haven't overbuilt.