A Sea Of Red

For some of you it appears a little history reset might be in order ...

Back in the Mid '90s, the Pac-10 opened up the crazy realignment round by inviting Texas and Texas A&M into their league. Sensing they'd be left in the Southwest Conference holding the bag (with Kyle Kallander running the show nonetheless), Arkansas left the SWC and took the bid to the SEC.

The Texas Legislature decided they wanted to play hardball with both the Pac-10 & Big 8. They insisted that any league that wanted UT and A&M would have to take at least two other schools with them or they would withhold funding to the Longhorns & Aggies. That led to the Pac-10 backing away and eventually the merger between the four SWC schools and the Big 8 to form the new Big XII conference.

How the two other schools who went to the Big XII in addition to the Horns & Ags were decided is the stuff of Texas political legend. Anne Richards was Governor and Bob Bullock was Lt. Governor. In Texas, it arguable that the Lt. Gov. position has more power as the overseer of the Legislature. Both Richards & Bullock were Baylor alumni. Despite the fact that both TCU & Houston has much better programs and were frankly much better schools to be aligned with the new league, Richards & Bullock forced the Big XII to take the underfunded and cellar-dwelling Baylor Bears if they wanted the Horns & Ags. If the timing had been just a few years different in any other direction then it would be either the Frogs or Coogs in the Big XII and Baylor would be on par with their old rivals at SMU.

As for Arkansas, they're only natural rivalry in the SEC is with LSU. There biggest rivals for most of the last century were Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma & Oklahoma State. The two Okie schools are close by as SumItUp can gladly point out. From a Texas perspective, until the SWC died Arkansas was always one of the Big 3 rivals for the Longhorns with the Sooners & Aggies. So history and geography sit on the side of the Big XII. So a move out of the SEC should not surprise anyone if it does occur.

Conference USA was essentially formed for all of the schools who didn't find a place to sit when the music stopped in that major realignment of the Mid '90s. Most of those schools learned their lessons and have tried to position themselves for the rounds that have followed. It worked to the advantage of Louisville, Cincinnati and Marquette and you can be sure that ECU, Houston, Memphis and Southern Miss are doing everything they can to make themselves attractive to any possible suitors. And C-USA itself is trying to do what it can to survive the next round when they know they may get their top schools bolt.

For many of you the only major realignment that you have experienced was the ACC-Big East deal. Suffice it to say that it will be much bigger the next time around and the Big Ten likely will be the one to get it started.

Innocent Bystander wrote: 40% chance the Big 10 does nothing
30% chance they add Notre Dame
15% chance they add Rutgers
10% chance they add Syracuse
5% chance they add Pitt

I like everything you said, but this. 0% chance of Missouri or Nebraska?!

JK37 wrote:

Innocent Bystander wrote: 40% chance the Big 10 does nothing
30% chance they add Notre Dame
15% chance they add Rutgers
10% chance they add Syracuse
5% chance they add Pitt

I like everything you said, but this. 0% chance of Missouri or Nebraska?!

I think ND is the first choice because of their national following. I think if ND says no, that the Big 10 would lean toward the Big East schools and here is why...I think the adding Missouri or Nebraska leaves the Big 10 as a midwest conference, while adding Rutgers, Syracuse, Pitt or any other Big East schools (coupled with the current presence of Penn St) allows the Big 10 to become a midwest/northeast conference. Adding Missouri would bring major media markets in St. Louis and Kansas City. Nebraska would bring a lot of football tradition. While those are probably worth more than a 0% chance, I think the Big 10 will look east first.

That's not to say that Missouri or Nebraska wouldn't be good additions, I just don't think they fit what the Big 10 is after....pure speculation on my part, by the way.

Sly Fox wrote:For some of you it appears a little history reset might be in order ...

Back in the Mid '90s, the Pac-10 opened up the crazy realignment round by inviting Texas and Texas A&M into their league. Sensing they'd be left in the Southwest Conference holding the bag (with Kyle Kallander running the show nonetheless), Arkansas left the SWC and took the bid to the SEC.

The Texas Legislature decided they wanted to play hardball with both the Pac-10 & Big 8. They insisted that any league that wanted UT and A&M would have to take at least two other schools with them or they would withhold funding to the Longhorns & Aggies. That led to the Pac-10 backing away and eventually the merger between the four SWC schools and the Big 8 to form the new Big XII conference.

How the two other schools who went to the Big XII in addition to the Horns & Ags were decided is the stuff of Texas political legend. Anne Richards was Governor and Bob Bullock was Lt. Governor. In Texas, it arguable that the Lt. Gov. position has more power as the overseer of the Legislature. Both Richards & Bullock were Baylor alumni. Despite the fact that both TCU & Houston has much better programs and were frankly much better schools to be aligned with the new league, Richards & Bullock forced the Big XII to take the underfunded and cellar-dwelling Baylor Bears if they wanted the Horns & Ags. If the timing had been just a few years different in any other direction then it would be either the Frogs or Coogs in the Big XII and Baylor would be on par with their old rivals at SMU.

As for Arkansas, they're only natural rivalry in the SEC is with LSU. There biggest rivals for most of the last century were Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma & Oklahoma State. The two Okie schools are close by as SumItUp can gladly point out. From a Texas perspective, until the SWC died Arkansas was always one of the Big 3 rivals for the Longhorns with the Sooners & Aggies. So history and geography sit on the side of the Big XII. So a move out of the SEC should not surprise anyone if it does occur.

Conference USA was essentially formed for all of the schools who didn't find a place to sit when the music stopped in that major realignment of the Mid '90s. Most of those schools learned their lessons and have tried to position themselves for the rounds that have followed. It worked to the advantage of Louisville, Cincinnati and Marquette and you can be sure that ECU, Houston, Memphis and Southern Miss are doing everything they can to make themselves attractive to any possible suitors. And C-USA itself is trying to do what it can to survive the next round when they know they may get their top schools bolt.

For many of you the only major realignment that you have experienced was the ACC-Big East deal. Suffice it to say that it will be much bigger the next time around and the Big Ten likely will be the one to get it started.

Very True Sly....2 school that are very much under the radar that I think might be prime for a move: USF & UCF. UCF is now (actually has been for some time) the largest school in Florida BY FAR -- and although it was just about 5 or 6 years ago that they jumped from the Atlantic Sun, I wouldn't be surprised to see them moving up...sometime soon. Ditto with USF. They joined the Big East when the whole ACC/Big-East move went down... But I wouldn't be at all surprised if someone came after them in the next few years. I think with the money and facilities UCF has they are more primed for a move up into a big conferecne, and lets face it USF is already in the Big East.... But Still wouldn't be shocked if USF was moving again sometime in the next few years.

Alright, deep breath. Here we go.

Big Ten adds Rutgers. They're a land grant school and belong to the same association that the rest of the Big Ten belongs to. It gives them the NYC market too.

The Big East adds ECU in return.

Conference USA takes Louisiana Tech in return.

After this, the Pac 10 goes after BYU and Utah to get to 12 teams and have a championship game.

The Mountain West takes Hawaii and Boise State in return.

The CAA splits up and the A10 restarts football or the new Yankee Conference is formed..

The A10/Yankee has Richmond, Fordham, UMass, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire. They also add Stony Brook and Albany in football.

The CAA has JMU, W&M, GaSt, ODU, Towson, Delaware, and Nova. They add Liberty and Elon to get to nine teams. VCU, Mason, UNCW, and maybe Drexel stay to keep 12 teams for other sports.

The SoCon takes Coastal to replace Elon.

Most of this won't happen, however, all of it is completely plausible.

SuperJon wrote:Alright, deep breath. Here we go.

Big Ten adds Rutgers. They're a land grant school and belong to the same association that the rest of the Big Ten belongs to. It gives them the NYC market too.

The Big East adds ECU in return.

Conference USA takes Louisiana Tech in return.

After this, the Pac 10 goes after BYU and Utah to get to 12 teams and have a championship game.

The Mountain West takes Hawaii and Boise State in return.

The CAA splits up and the A10 restarts football or the new Yankee Conference is formed..

The A10/Yankee has Richmond, Fordham, UMass, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire. They also add Stony Brook and Albany in football.

The CAA has JMU, W&M, GaSt, ODU, Towson, Delaware, and Nova. They add Liberty and Elon to get to nine teams. VCU, Mason, UNCW, and maybe Drexel stay to keep 12 teams for other sports.

The SoCon takes Coastal to replace Elon.

Most of this won't happen, however, all of it is completely plausible.

I enjoy this scenario. What's interesting is that its really two, and they are potentially mutually exclusive: FBS & FCS.

With regard to the FBS scenario, no one knows. The FCS one seems much more likely to happen because, unlike the FBS scenario, there's not really many alternative. By contrast, the FBS shake-up has multiple starting point, and directions in which the Big Ten could go.

SuperJon wrote:Alright, deep breath. Here we go.

Big Ten adds Rutgers. They're a land grant school and belong to the same association that the rest of the Big Ten belongs to. It gives them the NYC market too.

The Big East adds ECU in return.

Conference USA takes Louisiana Tech in return.

After this, the Pac 10 goes after BYU and Utah to get to 12 teams and have a championship game.

The Mountain West takes Hawaii and Boise State in return.

The CAA splits up and the A10 restarts football or the new Yankee Conference is formed..

The A10/Yankee has Richmond, Fordham, UMass, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire. They also add Stony Brook and Albany in football.

The CAA has JMU, W&M, GaSt, ODU, Towson, Delaware, and Nova. They add Liberty and Elon to get to nine teams. VCU, Mason, UNCW, and maybe Drexel stay to keep 12 teams for other sports.

The SoCon takes Coastal to replace Elon.

Most of this won't happen, however, all of it is completely plausible.

I'll add to this.

KSU gets football along with charlotte by 13' and 14'
KSU joins the big south along with jacksonville.
Charlotte jumps in all sports up with Ga st by 2017 to dIA conference TBD

SuperJon wrote:Alright, deep breath. Here we go.

Big Ten adds Rutgers. They're a land grant school and belong to the same association that the rest of the Big Ten belongs to. It gives them the NYC market too.

The Big East adds ECU in return.

Conference USA takes Louisiana Tech in return.

After this, the Pac 10 goes after BYU and Utah to get to 12 teams and have a championship game.

The Mountain West takes Hawaii and Boise State in return.

The CAA splits up and the A10 restarts football or the new Yankee Conference is formed..

The A10/Yankee has Richmond, Fordham, UMass, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire. They also add Stony Brook and Albany in football.

The CAA has JMU, W&M, GaSt, ODU, Towson, Delaware, and Nova. They add Liberty and Elon to get to nine teams. VCU, Mason, UNCW, and maybe Drexel stay to keep 12 teams for other sports.

The SoCon takes Coastal to replace Elon.

Most of this won't happen, however, all of it is completely plausible.

The A10 would also have Charlotte, since they're already members for other sports.
And to continue this scenario, the Big South adds Longwood for all sports.

I didn't add Charlotte to the Yankee/A10 because I could see that one being different than it currently is. Charlotte is a wildcard.

The rumors seem to indicate that the Big 10 is looking for 3 teams. Maybe I'm believing the wrong rumors, but I think the Big ten becomes 14 teams in the next 5 years. I personally think they add 2 teams for the fall of 2012, and leave a spot open for Notre Dame as long as they can (3-4 years).

If I had to predict a scenario, I would say that the Big Ten adds Syracuse and Rutgers in 2012, and if everything works out Notre Dame comes into the conference in 2014 or 2015 (they continue to slide and get out of their NBC contract).

belcherboy wrote:The rumors seem to indicate that the Big 10 is looking for 3 teams. Maybe I'm believing the wrong rumors, but I think the Big ten becomes 14 teams in the next 5 years. I personally think they add 2 teams for the fall of 2012, and leave a spot open for Notre Dame as long as they can (3-4 years).

If I had to predict a scenario, I would say that the Big Ten adds Syracuse and Rutgers in 2012, and if everything works out Notre Dame comes into the conference in 2014 or 2015 (they continue to slide and get out of their NBC contract).

The Big 10 doesn't want an odd number of teams again. They might add one, then two more, but they will keep it even.

SuperJon wrote:Alright, deep breath. Here we go.

Big Ten adds Rutgers. They're a land grant school and belong to the same association that the rest of the Big Ten belongs to. It gives them the NYC market too.

The Big East adds ECU in return.

Conference USA takes Louisiana Tech in return.

After this, the Pac 10 goes after BYU and Utah to get to 12 teams and have a championship game.

The Mountain West takes Hawaii and Boise State in return.

The CAA splits up and the A10 restarts football or the new Yankee Conference is formed..

The A10/Yankee has Richmond, Fordham, UMass, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire. They also add Stony Brook and Albany in football.

The CAA has JMU, W&M, GaSt, ODU, Towson, Delaware, and Nova. They add Liberty and Elon to get to nine teams. VCU, Mason, UNCW, and maybe Drexel stay to keep 12 teams for other sports.

The SoCon takes Coastal to replace Elon.

Most of this won't happen, however, all of it is completely plausible.

Comments:

Why ECU? What do they add to the Big East? Why not Memphis?

I don't think the Pac 10 would take BYU for many reasons, not including academics (no real graduate/research program to speak of), Sunday issue, and for now, real bitterness in the academic world in CA over Prop 8. Utah and Colorado are much more likely, but no expansion is even more likely, for now.

Mountain West ditched Hawaii for a reason - travel costs. Even more so now. Boise, yes

JK37 wrote:Clemson was blackballed by USC years ago.

I know this isn't really on topic, but I have to ask... when did this happen? Has the SEC looked to expand since they brought Arkansas and USC into the conference? Or did USC join and say right away, "We don't want to be in a conference with Clemson"?

If there is a big shakeup, maybe Kyle will use it as a chance to get the old Southwest Conference back together.

horrez wrote:

JK37 wrote:Clemson was blackballed by USC years ago.

I know this isn't really on topic, but I have to ask... when did this happen? Has the SEC looked to expand since they brought Arkansas and USC into the conference? Or did USC join and say right away, "We don't want to be in a conference with Clemson"?

If there is a big shakeup, maybe Kyle will use it as a chance to get the old Southwest Conference back together.

If the Big 10 snags a Big 12 team, look for the Big 12 to go after Arkansas

horrez wrote:

JK37 wrote:Clemson was blackballed by USC years ago.

I know this isn't really on topic, but I have to ask... when did this happen? Has the SEC looked to expand since they brought Arkansas and USC into the conference? Or did USC join and say right away, "We don't want to be in a conference with Clemson"?

If there is a big shakeup, maybe Kyle will use it as a chance to get the old Southwest Conference back together.

South Carolina was once in the ACC, right? And GT in the SEC??? Last time I heard of anyone blackballing anyone in the SEC, it was UGA blocking GT's attempt to re-enter the conference.

dbackjon wrote:
Why ECU? What do they add to the Big East? Why not Memphis?

They're the same thing. ECU is just the flavor of the week in football because they've been decent for the last few years. Either way taking one of those teams keeps the same scenario in his post.

ECU also doesn't add another gigantic team to the Big East in basketball. Memphis would make the league that much tougher in basketball. The coaches wouldn't go for that.

... but the presidents who make these decisions recognize the value of hoops or Louisville & Cincinnati wouldn't be in the their league already.

Sly Fox wrote:... but the presidents who make these decisions recognize the value of hoops or Louisville & Cincinnati wouldn't be in the their league already.

Especially if the Big 10 took one or more of the basketball powers - like Syracuse or Pitt. They would want to replace them with at least one other power.

dbackjon wrote:

Sly Fox wrote:... but the presidents who make these decisions recognize the value of hoops or Louisville & Cincinnati wouldn't be in the their league already.

Especially if the Big 10 took one or more of the basketball powers - like Syracuse or Pitt. They would want to replace them with at least one other power.

And ECU is not a power in BBall by any means. However, like with the ACC back in the early part of the decade, if football is the driving force, then ECU will be the most attractive option for the Big East from CUSA.

Not by much, Atrain. Memphis had a down year but is on par with ECU in general. Geography is ECU's best calling card for expansion.

Sly Fox wrote:Not by much, Atrain. Memphis had a down year but is on par with ECU in general. Geography is ECU's best calling card for expansion.

Not so fast my friend. ECU is 2 time defending conference champs. Since 2005, ECU is 38-26 while Memphis is 24-38.

Sly Fox wrote:Not by much, Atrain. Memphis had a down year but is on par with ECU in general. Geography is ECU's best calling card for expansion.

How so?

Only one team south of the Mason Dixon line currently - South Florida. I don't know if ECU has much of a media presence in North Carolina. Memphis definately delivers the Memphis market (#50).

Greenville is #103 in TV Market size. For comparison, Roanoke-Lynchburg is #67 with 170K more households. Memphis delivers 400K more than Greenville.

The Big East is a NE league, with a Midwest extension (DePaul, Notre Dame, Cincy, Marquette and Louisville, which is more midwestern than Southern).

jcmanson wrote:

Sly Fox wrote:Not by much, Atrain. Memphis had a down year but is on par with ECU in general. Geography is ECU's best calling card for expansion.

Not so fast my friend. ECU is 2 time defending conference champs. Since 2005, ECU is 38-26 while Memphis is 24-38.

TV Market matters far more than Football records, and Basketball matters more than Football for the Big East.

dbackjon wrote: Basketball matters more than Football for the Big East.

This is where I think you're wrong. It's 50/50 right now. Of course, basketball is more important to your basketball only schools and maybe UConn and Syracuse, but you've got the rest of the football schools pushing football really hard.