Innocent Bystander wrote:
TCU, as a member of a non-BCS conference, receives an automatic BCS bid if it is rated in the top 12 or if it is in the top 16 and ahead of a BCS conference champion. ND receives an automatic bid if they are in the top 8.
I'll go ahead and say what everyone else knows, Notre Dame gets a BCS bowl game if it is in the top 14 of the BCS. They are WAY too big of a draw.
Look at ND's schedule this year compared to Texas and Alabama and tell me if you think they would have jumped past one of those teams if all three were undefeated.
I agree they probably would not have jumped past Alabama, but it is not like Alabama's and Texas schedule was really that much better. Notre Dame schedules well in advance and who would have predicted 3 years ago that Michigan would be so bad (they still lost to them...which makes me happy as a Michigan fan). It turned out to be a weak schedule, but I don't think Texas has much bragging rights with their schedule this year. Personally I think an undefeated Notre Dame jumps Texas this year, but that is just my personal opinion. I think the NCAA is DYING for a strong Notre Dame program.
The last BCS negotiation took away a lot of the benefit that ND got in the original deal.
Yeah they did! ND still gets $1 million from the BCS every year, no matter what happens. They can go 0-12 and will still get a $1 million check from the BCS, but they will only receive $4.5 million for the BCS bowl game they go to. It used to be $14 million. http://www.fanblogs.com/ncaa/005159.php
The Chicago Tribune is now reporting that the Big 10 may add 3 or 5 schools. This doesn't really seem to make financial sense, but it might make sense if your target is ND. Tell me if this makes sense....
If the Chicago Tribune adds 3 or 5, it is likely that at least 2 of those schools come from the Big East. Any damage to the Big East might cause the conference to fall apart, which would leave ND without a good home for their sports other than football (best choice would be either the Atlantic 10 or the Missouri Valley...neither of which is Big East caliber). Given the choice between joining the Big 10 for all sports or remaining a football independent and playing the remainder of their sports in the Atlantic 10 might push ND toward the Big 10.
Of course....this is pure speculation on my part.
Even if they lost Syracuse, and/or Cincy, and/or Pitt, the Big East will still be around because of basketball. Many schools in the Big East don't care about football (i.e. Georgetown, Seton Hall, St. Johns, Marquette, Providence, DePaul) They have 16 teams in basketball. If they were to lose 2-3 teams, it would hurt, but they would still be a pretty strong basketball conference. The teams that would really hurt would be West Virginia, Louisville, UConn, and South Florida, but I think they could find couple of decent football teams to replace them. There are a few MAC schools that I could see jumping ship for the Big East, and IMO, it would be enough to keep their automatic BCS bid.
The Big East is too strong to fold IMO. I find them the weakest of the automatic BCS conferences, but not too weak that they don't usually deserve at least one team in a BCS bowl game, even if they lost two of their top four teams.