[Sly Fox]

I have heard them all from the same few posters. Marshall is desperate to jump ship. I have good third-hand knowledge that Ian has heard from their leadership a number of times through the past year or so. Nothing would surprise me a this stage about what comes next.

It would also not surprise me if there was a situation where we were invited by Aresco to the AAC and we decided to pass. As crazy as that sounds, it all depends on what the league would look like once we entered. I like our position of not being compelled to have to jump to first available option. We can be patient if necessary.

[TH Spangler]

Why would any MWC see an upsdie to joining the AAC? seriously. If anything I believe there is a better chance of a western AAC team bolting to the stronger MWC.

There are a zillion rumors out there right now. But they are simply rumors. The AAC should be announcing some expansion in the next couple of weeks or it indicates that their plans have fallen through. Then these crazy reorganizations start coming to fruition.

What I can tell you is that the CUSA is off the tables from our standpoint. If we don't score an AAC invitation I could see us possibly listening to the Belt under certain circumstances. Yeah I remember the last go round. I am just being pragmatic if it emerges as the strongest league in Central & Eastern time zones. Do I see that as likely? No. But it is a consideration.

Lot of buzz “rumors” on message boards of Marshall, JMU, ODU to Sunbelt.

Non of which have any P5 potential. Indy still looks better than that group to me.

[tyndal23]

Why would any MWC see an upsdie to joining the AAC? seriously. If anything I believe there is a better chance of a western AAC team bolting to the stronger MWC.

There are a zillion rumors out there right now. But they are simply rumors. The AAC should be announcing some expansion in the next couple of weeks or it indicates that their plans have fallen through. Then these crazy reorganizations start coming to fruition.

What I can tell you is that the CUSA is off the tables from our standpoint. If we don't score an AAC invitation I could see us possibly listening to the Belt under certain circumstances. Yeah I remember the last go round. I am just being pragmatic if it emerges as the strongest league in Central & Eastern time zones. Do I see that as likely? No. But it is a consideration.

Lot of buzz “rumors” on message boards of Marshall, JMU, ODU to Sunbelt.

Non of which have any P5 potential. Indy still looks better than that group to me.

More likely than not that is our only option, I still think we have issues getting enough Presidents votes in AAC and Sunbelt.

[LUOrange]

Why would any MWC see an upsdie to joining the AAC? seriously. If anything I believe there is a better chance of a western AAC team bolting to the stronger MWC.

There are a zillion rumors out there right now. But they are simply rumors. The AAC should be announcing some expansion in the next couple of weeks or it indicates that their plans have fallen through. Then these crazy reorganizations start coming to fruition.

What I can tell you is that the CUSA is off the tables from our standpoint. If we don't score an AAC invitation I could see us possibly listening to the Belt under certain circumstances. Yeah I remember the last go round. I am just being pragmatic if it emerges as the strongest league in Central & Eastern time zones. Do I see that as likely? No. But it is a consideration.

Is CUSA going to implode or is the Belt and AAC going to pick it apart? As they sit now, I'd rather go the CUSA route than the Belt. It's a better overall conference than the Belt, while the Belt is just better in football and nothing else.

[Ill flame]

While I'm not convinced that the MWC is a better conference than the new AAC, I do think that it would be a bad decision for a western team to leave the MWC now. Unless of course the AAC decides to it wants to rule supreme over the G5 by taking all of the top schools from each G5 conference. For some reason commissioners keep throwing around the idea of getting stupidly big.

[ballcoach15]

As for JMU and ODU, i can't see them being a candidate to go anywhere.

[ATrain]

As for JMU and ODU, i can't see them being a candidate to go anywhere.

Have you seen anything past the year 1971?

[ATrain]

Big12 should add Army, Air Force, Memphis, and Liberty to get to 16. Hey, we can dream, right???

[rmiller1959]

The situation in the Group of 5 is dynamic at this stage.

I think the Mountain West is going to stand pat and try to retain its members.

https://themw.com/news/2021/9/9/basebal ... ctors.aspx

The AAC fancies itself as a "Power 6" conference, so they're going to go after the strongest schools from other conferences they can get.

Meanwhile, the Sun Belt says they're in the expansion market as well.

C-USA and the MAC have been quiet, perhaps trying to fly under the radar so they don't become targets.

Let's not forget that the Big 12 is still not done, and the appeal of being in a Power Five conference may freeze a lot of G5 schools in place (USF and Memphis come to mind). They went from being on the ropes after Texas and OU bolted to being the ones calling the shots in realignment. I think they played this very well, but if the Pac 12 had decided to expand, tey would have been toast.

[jimflamesfan]

If the college football playoff is expanding to 12 teams and there is a bid for best team from a G5 conference...I think then the flames almost have to go into a FBS football conference, even if the CUSA ia the only one that offers. Think about how it went when the Flames were FCS independents. We had some good years...'88, '95, '97...I think LU went either 9-2 or 8-3 those years with a couple off good FCS wins...Appy State, Cal Poly, UCF, etc...but we never made the FCS playoffs. We didn't make the FCS playoffs until we were able to do so by winning the Big South.

I think the same logic will apply. Try for Aac...but be open to Sunbelt and CUSA. It gives your team a slim path to the 12 team playoff if you run the table and the cards fall right with the other g5 winners. So If LU ends up in CUSA they probably have 8 conference games. So be strategic with the out of conference.


The only other option outside of a conference is Tyndale's plan of staying independent and gradually adding more amd more power 5 opponemts until you basically become a quasi power 5 independent like BYU used to be before going big 12.

[tyndal23]

If the college football playoff is expanding to 12 teams and there is a bid for best team from a G5 conference...I think then the flames almost have to go into a FBS football conference, even if the CUSA ia the only one that offers. Think about how it went when the Flames were FCS independents. We had some good years...'88, '95, '97...I think LU went either 9-2 or 8-3 those years with a couple off good FCS wins...Appy State, Cal Poly, UCF, etc...but we never made the FCS playoffs. We didn't make the FCS playoffs until we were able to do so by winning the Big South.

I think the same logic will apply. Try for Aac...but be open to Sunbelt and CUSA. It gives your team a slim path to the 12 team playoff if you run the table and the cards fall right with the other g5 winners. So If LU ends up in CUSA they probably have 8 conference games. So be strategic with the out of conference.


The only other option outside of a conference is Tyndale's plan of staying independent and gradually adding more amd more power 5 opponemts until you basically become a quasi power 5 independent like BYU used to be before going big 12.

That is Tyndal to you sir, and I never said the word gradual . I agree with you on the 12 team playoff get in a conference for best shot to make the playoff. The only upside for Independent will be a quicker path to P5 IF you embrace it, schedule,budget,market and recruit to it and clearly be a notch above G5 rosters. But again, by the time your able to get your schedule that way - it is 5 years out - so if we are in a conference within 2 years - probably a better and safer option. Sounds like Conference USA is off the table per Sly, so we will have a pretty clear picture pretty soon - either AAC,Sunbelt or Independent.

[Liberty22]

If we settle for sunbelt or cusa for the playoff bid we handicap ourselves to be a g5 for eternity. You lower your chance at a playoff bid by being independent but becoming a P5 equivalent like BYU at some point is better than handicapping ourselves as an Ark State in my mind. You’ve got a chance at big recruits as a BYU much better than you do as a Ark St. Just my smelly opinion

[ballcoach15]

Our vision should be getting into a Power 5 conference, not just making a 12 team playoff. That 12 team playoff is not written in stone, as of now.

[Sly Fox]

Le the record show that I agree with ballcoach15 on one point: The 12-game proposal is indeed just a proposal at this stage. It is by no means a certainty. There is plenty of wheeling & dealing to be done by 2025 on that front.

Based on surviving members once the known moves occur the G5 landscape would likely shake out like the following prior to new additions:

1. MWC
2. Sun Belt
3. AAC
4. MAC
5. CUSA

You could make a claim that thr Belt might be slightly better than the MWC. The Mountain West schools would see little value in moving to a transcontinental conference that would likely be a lateral move. That's why I don't see those schools wanting to head to the AAC.

The Belt is in an eviable place as they likely are about to feast on the better CUSA leftovers. Southern Miss will be targeted and then you add in another Texan school like UTSA or North Texas and they are golden. Everyone assumes that UAB is AAC -bound. But I'll reference their other targets below.

The MAC really is playing it low key because beyond NIU and Buffalo they really don't have any schools that would be attractive to any extent to the AAC. Once upon a time perhaps Ohio or Toledo. Those days are gone and they like their tight geography.

CUSA has assumed the mantle of FCS entry point that once belonged to the Belt. Marshall, UAB and perhaps Rice will all be gone no matter how this all shakes out. Marshall is supposedly trying to create and alliance with ODU and JMU of all schools to go to the Belt en masse if the AAC passes on them. Most assume the Belt would take Marshall in a heartbeat even they are available. So that leaves schools like WKU, MTSU, La Tech, UNT, UTSA & the Florida twins in a limbo. No one is happy with their situation. La Tech doesn't want to associate with ULL & ULM in the Belt. UNT & UTSA are lobbying hard for AAC and would be happy to go to the Belt as well. The Nashville area schools are feeling unloved and unwanted. And then there are FAU and FIU who never have felt appreciated but will remain possibilities for leagues because, well, Florida.

That brings us to the AAC. In spite fo the Belt's posturing, no one will take a bid there without hearing what the AAC intend to do. Yes, their contract will be renegotiated by ESPN. But even cut in half it would be far more lucrative than the other G5s. While the better CUSA names will likely be the bulk of their additions, App State is definitely in the mix. Yes, they have terrible olympics in a tough place to travel with less than stellar academics. But this is all about football and they have distinguished themselves brilliantly. UAB and Rice has been presumed by most in the know as the most likely candidates. That remains the case. But Marshall, ODU and the MAC schools I mentioned above also are in the mix with us. The JMU folks believe that Marshall & ODU will bring them along for the ride. Color me skeptical.

[ballcoach15]

JMU and ODU have nothing in common with Marshall. I don't see how anyone can mention them in the same breath.

[TH Spangler]

Sly are you saying CUSA or Indy for us?

[cruzan_flame13]

When it comes to sports with the Lord's guidance, in Ian we trust.

[jinxy]

How is rice even considered. Thats the one i cant figure out. They used to be a baseball power but thats years back.

[Sly Fox]

What I am suggesting is that if we get an AAC invitation that we likely are seizing on it. But it is unclear whether or not we will get an invitation. I think we are definitely in the discussion.

Barring a G5 reorganization based ona CUSA East-West split, I dont see any chance we have anything to do with what is left of the CUSA. But never say never until you know exactly what is in vront of you at the moment it is an option.

The Sun Belt is likely a taker in this process and will be stronger as a football league moving forward. Outside of baseball & softball, the other sports are generally pretty awful in the Belt. I don't see it very likely that we would consider the Belt unless it was part of a package deal with Marshall & ODU. And I don't see that as likely at this stage.

Keep in mind that the AAC has weight exit fees and a 27-month notice. They will likely have to downgrade both significantly to attract the types of schools with whome they are expressing interest. For many schools the cost of exit & entry fees is enough to scare them into inaction. None of these costs are typically budgeted.

I could very easily see us holding steady as an Indy for year or two until TV contracts start shaking out.

And once again, Rice is an elite academic school. University presidents who cast the votes for invitations loving rubbing shoulders with the Rices of the world. Particular university presidents in places like Dallas, Tulsa and New Orleans. The university has the recources to improve their athletic program. That just haven't felt compelled to do so in CUSA.

[Ill flame]

Rice will never invest heavily into athletics. There is strong opposition against sports (especially football) among the faculty and some alumni and it's been that way a long time. They want to be seen more like the ivy league and less like the big ten (elite athletically and academically but not on the Ivy leagues level). It's not about if rice can be a good football school, it's about whether they want too and they don't.

[cruzan_flame13]

Rice will never invest heavily into athletics. There is strong opposition against sports (especially football) among the faculty and some alumni and it's been that way a long time. They want to be seen more like the ivy league and less like the big ten (elite athletically and academically but not on the Ivy leagues level). It's not about if rice can be a good football school, it's about whether they want too and they don't.

Hope they're not holding their breath on that one.

[olldflame]

A while back a troll on the Rice message board said that he had inside sources saying that the Owls were going to D3, and a LOT of the regulars there believed him.

[Sly Fox]

I know a ton of folks in the Rice athletic department personally. They are currently growing their student body which was the smallest in FBS and among the smallest in all of D1. They are also heavily endowed giving them the financial muscle necessary to go big in athletics if they want another shot at the big time. During the Wayne Graham era the school gave the baseball team all of the bells and whistles. They can invest in athletics any time they like.

If this realignment doesn't shake out the way they prefer, it is VERY possible they could drop down to D3. They consider Johns Hopkins, Univ of Chicago, MIT and other D3 elites to be peers (seriously, cruzan_flame13). The student body doesn't care about sports so it would be an easy transition.

[tyndal23]

I know a ton of folks in the Rice athletic department personally. They are currently growing their student body which was the smallest in FBS and among the smallest in all of D1. They are also heavily endowed giving them the financial muscle necessary to go big in athletics if they want another shot at the big time. During the Wayne Graham era the school gave the baseball team all of the bells and whistles. They can invest in athletics any time they like.

If this realignment doesn't shake out the way they prefer, it is VERY possible they could drop down to D3. They consider Johns Hopkins, Univ of Chicago, MIT and other D3 elites to be peers (seriously, cruzan_flame13). The student body doesn't care about sports so it would be an easy transition.

Presidents vote, but AD’s put their list of teams they want in front of the Presidents and that comes after consulting tv carriers. . I get the Houston “market” and the academics, but no one watches Rice and if they don’t care about sports why should anyone want them in their conference? are they seriously believing a conference will say “trust is” we will spend the $ in the future even though we haven’t to date. TV $ - Rice is a negative and that is ultimately what matters. I see them in a situation where IF they want a better conference they will need to buy their way in. ( or quickly pull out approved plans for major facility upgrades out of their hip pocket ). And by upgrade, I mean taking the upper deck off that nice but old stadium and making it 15k capacity. That way when they have 5k in the stands it is only 66% empty vs 98% empty. ( exaggerating, but not by much ).

[tyndal23]

I know a ton of folks in the Rice athletic department personally. They are currently growing their student body which was the smallest in FBS and among the smallest in all of D1. They are also heavily endowed giving them the financial muscle necessary to go big in athletics if they want another shot at the big time. During the Wayne Graham era the school gave the baseball team all of the bells and whistles. They can invest in athletics any time they like.

If this realignment doesn't shake out the way they prefer, it is VERY possible they could drop down to D3. They consider Johns Hopkins, Univ of Chicago, MIT and other D3 elites to be peers (seriously, cruzan_flame13). The student body doesn't care about sports so it would be an easy transition.

Presidents vote, but AD’s put their list of teams they want in front of the Presidents and that comes after consulting tv carriers. . I get the Houston “market” and the academics, but no one watches Rice and if they don’t care about sports why should anyone want them in their conference? are they seriously believing a conference will say “trust is” we will spend the $ in the future even though we haven’t to date. TV $ - Rice is a negative and that is ultimately what matters. I see them in a situation where IF they want a better conference they will need to buy their way in. ( or quickly pull out approved plans for major facility upgrades out of their hip pocket ). And by upgrade, I mean taking the upper deck off that nice but old stadium and making it 15k capacity. That way when they have 5k in the stands it is only 66% empty vs 98% empty. ( exaggerating, but not by much ).

And by the way, absolutely nothing wrong with them defining who they want to be and dropping down, I actually admire it and there is a long list of schools who should join them for other reasons. Rice has the $ but focused on education and not football. SMU sold their souls back in the SWC days ( Rice may have also but didn’t get caught ) but those were crazy days.