[TDDance234]

ND isn't going anywhere. Their NBC contract pays them a bagillion dollars a year and as already stated, they pick and choose who they play now.

They've already got the PA market with Penn State, Pitt isn't going to move.

I agree it has to either be Rutgers or Syracuse. Syracuse would jump at the chance, IMO, as it would be a fairly easy transition in basketball.

[ALUmnus]

Found this list on some Notre Dame blog written back in May, but it gives a pretty good breakdown:
http://weisnd.blogspot.com/2009/05/big- ... sible.html

1. Nebraska
2. Missouri
3. West Virginia
4. Virginia Tech
5. Kentucky
6. Maryland
7. Notre Dame
8. Boston College
9. Pittsburgh
10. Cincinnatti
11. Louisville
12. Syracuse
13. Vanderbilt
14. Navy
15. Boise State
16. Rutgers
17. Iowa State
18. Memphis
19. Texas (the biggest surprise on the list, but his reasoning is this is who the Big 10 would really want, but has no chance to get)

[JK37]

ND isn't going anywhere. Their NBC contract pays them a bagillion dollars a year and as already stated, they pick and choose who they play now.

They've already got the PA market with Penn State, Pitt isn't going to move.

I agree it has to either be Rutgers or Syracuse. Syracuse would jump at the chance, IMO, as it would be a fairly easy transition in basketball.

Agree with your first two points. And as previously stated, I would add Missouri to your third. Syracuse likes where it stands right now, and has a strong history as a Big East school. Someone mentioned BC having to change their recruiting if it made a move to the Big Ten; same for Syracuse, especially in basketball. I think the Big 10 would have ot make a biger pitch to Syracuse than to Rutgers, and also hope for a football resurgence at SU (eh, maybe?). Meanwhile, Rutgers is ready to go NOW, wouldn't have to adapt as much, has much less tie to the BE basketball-wise. The Big Ten just has to in Rutgers' direction, and they're gone. In short, Rutgers is a slightly easier way into the NY market than Syracuse.

I'm a Big East guy, though, so I'm hoping they go after Missouri (or Nebraska) first to try to stay closer to their current region and pick up the St. Louis/Kansas City markets.

[JK37]

Kentucky really benefits from the SEC in football, and the SEC really benefits from Kentucky in basketball. Decent academic standards, but they are a traditional SEC school. Being close to an SEC family, (my girlfriend, and both of her parents all went to SEC schools, one of which was UK) I can tell you that there is an intense loyalty to that conference that I have never seen or understood. They also have an excellent tv deal, and revenue sharing. I don't know everything, or anyone in those athletic dept's (other than Bama), but I just can't see any SEC teams leaving the conference any time soon.

Those are the key words in your post. Arkansas, for various reasons, is treated a bit like a step-child in the SEC. They are not tradiitonal in the sense that 'Bama and UK are. All, I'm saying is, if the Big XII came calling at Arkansas to replace Missouri/Nebraska (and, I believe this would HAVE to be their first choice, ahead of TCU, Houston, etc.), then Arkansas would listen.

And once they're listening, you never know. But I guarantee it wouldn't be an automatic "No." They're not as beholden to the SEC as Bama, UK, etc.

[JK37]

Found this list on some Notre Dame blog written back in May, but it gives a pretty good breakdown:
http://weisnd.blogspot.com/2009/05/big- ... sible.html

1. Nebraska
2. Missouri
3. West Virginia
4. Virginia Tech
5. Kentucky
6. Maryland
7. Notre Dame
8. Boston College
9. Pittsburgh
10. Cincinnatti
11. Louisville
12. Syracuse
13. Vanderbilt
14. Navy
15. Boise State
16. Rutgers
17. Iowa State
18. Memphis
19. Texas (the biggest surprise on the list, but his reasoning is this is who the Big 10 would really want, but has no chance to get)

WVU, VT, Cincy, Louisville, Boise, ISU, Memphis, and BC can all be crossed off for reasons already given.

I'd put Pitt and Maryland (hadn't thought of that!) in same category - they just don't fit the tradiitonal mold.

Vandy was one I hadn't thought of, but same rule nixes them as does BC. But, fits academically, gives them a sizable new market. From the other side, Vandy's athletic programs would benefit greatly to get out of the SEC! They're a Big 10-style school stuck in the win-at-all-costs SEC, and they just can't compete while maintaining their academic integrity. (I'm not confident the Big 10, traditionalists that they are, will break their rule just to get a 12th, but maybe...)

Navy - that's intriguing! Fits in a lot of ways like Rutgers, but the jump is greater for them. I'm sure they'd listen, but would the Navy purists like it? Fun idea, though!

I'm not even going to address Texas .. Sly has to be insulted!

[olldflame]

Anyone who thinks that the Big 10 "has the PA market covered" with Penn State must not have spent much time in the state or have ever driven from Pittsburgh to Philly. The state is huge, and Pittsburg is the same distance from Cleveland as it is from State College. It is also closer to the Cleveland/Akron/Canton area than Columbus is.

I think Pitt would be a great addition to the Big 10, but it would be over the strong objections of Penn State. Happy Valley ended their long standing rivalry years ago basically because they felt that giving Pitt the opportunity to play them every year helped the Panthers credibility and leveled the recruiting playing field.

While I haven't followed the Panthers quite as closely for a while as I used to, I lived in Pgh. for several years. Saw Tony Dorsett play his first college game in person. I would say their program is probably in better shape now than it has been since those glory years.

[soccer7]

I am all for a little shake up in the Big East that lets us get in with ECU

[uncafan]

Anyone who thinks that the Big 10 "has the PA market covered" with Penn State must not have spent much time in the state or have ever driven from Pittsburgh to Philly. The state is huge, and Pittsburg is the same distance from Cleveland as it is from State College. It is also closer to the Cleveland/Akron/Canton area than Columbus is.

I think Pitt would be a great addition to the Big 10, but it would be over the strong objections of Penn State. Happy Valley ended their long standing rivalry years ago basically because they felt that giving Pitt the opportunity to play them every year helped the Panthers credibility and leveled the recruiting playing field.

While I haven't followed the Panthers quite as closely for a while as I used to, I lived in Pgh. for several years. Saw Tony Dorsett play his first college game in person. I would say their program is probably in better shape now than it has been since those glory years.

Just wanted to comment on this and my earlier post. First I'd like to take back what I said about the TV deal. There was a report in several papers around the midwest today on the "Study" the big ten is doing about expansion. Commisioner Delaney confirmed that the focuse of the study and expansion is indeed TV markets and that is the driving force behind the decision. Soooo I was way off on that one.

You are correct about Cleveland/Akron/Canton being closer to Pittsburgh than Columbus... However, Cleveland is 100% an "Ohio State" town...shoot the whole state of Ohio is OSU. Its not like other states where there's a big group of people rooting for another school. Even in the case of say Akron, who has their own D-1a program, people pull for Akron but are Ohio State fans first... And there is one city that is arguably hated more than Ann Arbor in northern ohio and that is Pittsburgh. Bringing Pitt in does nothing for TV or media coverage in Ohio and having lived in the Pitt area myself for a while (as I'm sure you saw) Pitt & Penn St. get pretty equal media coverage because there are so many PSU fans.

I just think JoePa doesn't want to be losing recruits to Pitt -- not to mention it doesn't help the Big Ten as a whole TV wise...

[JK37]

[quote="uncafan"]Bringing Pitt in does nothing for TV or media coverage in Ohio and having lived in the Pitt area myself for a while (as I'm sure you saw) Pitt & Penn St. get pretty equal media coverage because there are so many PSU fans.[quote]

Bingo!

[JK37]

I am all for a little shake up in the Big East that lets us get in with ECU

It's more likely that if Rutgers/Syracuse go, the Big East picks-up ECU...and the CUSA is looking for someone.

[SuperJon]

I am all for a little shake up in the Big East that lets us get in with ECU

It's more likely that if Rutgers/Syracuse go, the Big East picks-up ECU...and the CUSA is looking for someone.

Or does the Big East go after Memphis?

I'm much more intrigued by what the Big East does in retaliation than I am about who the Big Ten takes.

[bigsmooth]

totally disagree about the urban style campus thing so i will agree to disagree. TD, pitt has openly said they would go to the Big Ten if asked the last time expansion came up so not unless that has changed they would go. like i said before missouri would be the logical move from the big 12 and pitt from the big east. syracuse is not in the geographical footprint nor is rutgers. JK, has the big 10 named their criteria? if not it would be foolish to say they are not looking at football and basketball as criteria. academically in looking at pitt, syracuse and rutgers they are are very comparable in academic standards and admissions. tv markets?? please dont tell me that you are using the NYC tv market for syracuse. syracuse has their own market ranked # 81. rutgers, definitely is in the NYC TV market, but really, do you think that many are dialed into Rutgers sports?? would their exposure really change?? the big ten network is already available in that area, and the big east games are readily available. the pittsburgh market is # 23. you could argue that rutgers campus is pretty urban as well. this is all interesting stuff, but what i would like to see is the written criteria from the big 10.

[belcherboy]

I read a rumor that Barry Alvarez was on the radio this morning and made it clear that both Rutgers AND Syracuse would be added to the Big Ten for the start of the 2012 football season. Adding two teams would put the Big Ten at 13 teams so I'm thinking if the rumors are accurate about Rutgers AND Syracuse, they are either leaving a spot open for :

1) ND to come on board in the next few years
2) Missouri to announce they will be coming with Rutgers and SU
or
3) They are going to leave a spot open to find the BEST team possible in the next few years, letting everyone know there is a spot available.

Playing six division games, three cross division games, and three OOC games would be a pretty good idea for the Big Ten IMO.

[JK37]

JK, has the big 10 named their criteria? if not it would be foolish to say they are not looking at football and basketball as criteria.

The only thing the Big 10 has released is a 288-word statement that they will be conducting a study into expansion. Its the same study they've performed just about every 5 years since Penn State joined in 1990. No official criteria has been given. But, I enocurage you to read this article: http://www.cleveland.com/osu/index.ssf/ ... nsion.html

rutgers, definitely is in the NYC TV market, but really, do you think that many are dialed into Rutgers sports?? would their exposure really change?? the big ten network is already available in that area, and the big east games are readily available. the pittsburgh market is # 23. you could argue that rutgers campus is pretty urban as well. this is all interesting stuff, but what i would like to see is the written criteria from the big 10.

It's readily available in Pittsburgh, too. So, by your argument, their market ranking is moot, too.

Think of this as a businessperson, not as a fan. When you're able to sucessfully do that, you'll understand that current standing in any sports program is a secondary consideration. When you successfully understand the Big Ten mentality, you'll then also see how they believe admission into their conference is just the boost a sports program needs to rise or return to national prominence.

[bigsmooth]

i was not thinking of it as a fan, because really i do not care for any big 10 team. i will stick with my thoughts and just agree to disagree and if im wrong so be it.

[JK37]

i was not thinking of it as a fan, because really i do not care for any big 10 team. i will stick with my thoughts and just agree to disagree and if im wrong so be it.

Who knows if any of us will ever know, but that's cool.

[belcherboy]

JK, has the big 10 named their criteria? if not it would be foolish to say they are not looking at football and basketball as criteria.

The only thing the Big 10 has released is a 288-word statement that they will be conducting a study into expansion. Its the same study they've performed just about every 5 years since Penn State joined in 1990. No official criteria has been given. But, I enocurage you to read this article: http://www.cleveland.com/osu/index.ssf/ ... nsion.html

rutgers, definitely is in the NYC TV market, but really, do you think that many are dialed into Rutgers sports?? would their exposure really change?? the big ten network is already available in that area, and the big east games are readily available. the pittsburgh market is # 23. you could argue that rutgers campus is pretty urban as well. this is all interesting stuff, but what i would like to see is the written criteria from the big 10.

It's readily available in Pittsburgh, too. So, by your argument, their market ranking is moot, too.

Think of this as a businessperson, not as a fan. When you're able to sucessfully do that, you'll understand that current standing in any sports program is a secondary consideration. When you successfully understand the Big Ten mentality, you'll then also see how they believe admission into their conference is just the boost a sports program needs to rise or return to national prominence.

There is a HUGE business side to this as well, from what I've heard. The choice of team(s) has a lot to do with the BTN and its distribution cost. BTN can get $1.10 for each "home" market as opposed to what they charge out of market, I've heard like $0.10 per subscriber. That is a per month charge. There are way more homes in the NY/NJ market than anywhere else, and with a team in the area, it would be considered a "home" market now.

Think of the number of homes that the BTN can start charging $1 more per month to their cable company.

[uncafan]

Thought you guys might be interested in this summary by one of the more respected Ohio State media/blog type sites... They do a quick analysis of the "candidates" (about a paragraph each) and I'd say the commentary in this thread basically matches up with their 'expert' analysis...


http://www.the-ozone.net/football/2009/ ... ansion.htm

Of course, there are a few zingers mixed in... on Notre Dame the writer explains:

The only downside would be the addition of another mediocre football team. The Big Ten already has one Northwestern. Do we really need to add Northwestern’s snooty stepbrother who only shows up at family reunions to show off his new Kia Amanti?

Haaayyyooo!

[JK37]

Thought you guys might be interested in this summary by one of the more respected Ohio State media/blog type sites... They do a quick analysis of the "candidates" (about a paragraph each) and I'd say the commentary in this thread basically matches up with their 'expert' analysis...


http://www.the-ozone.net/football/2009/ ... ansion.htm

From your article:

The addition of Pittsburgh would also please Joe Paterno

The author quanitifies it humorously, so maybe he isn't entirely serious. But if he is, I don't believe him for a second on this point.

Cincinnati. No chance. If we’re going to take a third-rate basketball school from the state of Kentucky, we’ll stick with Louisville, thank you. (No offense to UK and their soon-to-be fake banners.)

Best part of the whole article!

[ALUmnus]

Tonight on the radio Mel Kiper was quickly asked about the expansion and really the only two teams he talked about were Pitt and Uconn. I hope he doesn't know what he's talking about, I don't want to see either of these teams leave the Big East. The more I think about it, I'd really love to see Nebraska in the Big Ten, maybe Missouri.

[Innocent Bystander]

As a Notre Dame fan that lives in Big 10 country I am going to post something I would never post on an ND board....

I am in favor of ND going to the Big 10.

For the Big 10, the benefits are obvious...
1. traditional power (although not recently)
2. traditional rivalries with at least five Big 10 schools (Mich, MSU, Purdue, Penn St, Northwestern)
3. increased TV revenue as ND brings a lot of eyeballs to TV sets
4. possibly better bowl deals

But why would ND do it? Someone mentioned their NBC deal and easier path to the BCS. The "easy" path to the BCS isn't as easy as it was originally...ND's path isn't much different than TCU's. The BCS payout ND gets is now in line with what a second team from a conference that gets into the BCS (like Florida this year) gets. When ND to the Big 10 was being discussed in 1999, the money was basically a wash for ND. Now...with the advent of the Big 10 Network...if this was purely a money decision, ND would go in a heartbeat. The alumni, however, do not want that. What could change the whole deal is if the NBC contract goes away entirely. Could that happen? Take a look at NBC's schedule for next season for a team coming off of a 6-6 record:

Purdue
Michigan
Stanford
Pittsburgh
Western Michigan
Tulsa
Utah
Army

The last half of that schedule will result in a lot of changed channels. ND is insisting on trying to schedule 7 home games and a neutral site game that is really a home game held off campus. Schools like Texas, Alabama, Florida St, Texas A&M, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Ohio St, LSU and the like (all teams ND has scheduled over the last 20 years) are not going to want to play ND at ND without getting a home game out of it. ND is committed to play Michigan, MSU, Purdue, Navy, USC, Stanford and three Big East teams every year as home and homes. The reallity is that they will likely only schedule 2 Big East teams. If you do the math...the last 4 games they schedule every year have to be home games with no return date...that gets you more schedules like the one that you see above. Either ND has to give up on playing 8 home games or NBC will eventually be forced to drop them (or at least cut the amount that they are paying significantly).

I would put the percentage as follows:

40% chance the Big 10 does nothing
30% chance they add Notre Dame
15% chance they add Rutgers
10% chance they add Syracuse
5% chance they add Pitt

[Innocent Bystander]

You're kidding yourself if you think Notre Dame's path to the BCS is similar to TCU's. TCU went undefeated and still only managed to get stuck in the "Separate But Equal Bowl". If Notre Dame had managed to only lose 2 they would receive serious consideration, b/c they are Notre Dame.

TCU, as a member of a non-BCS conference, receives an automatic BCS bid if it is rated in the top 12 or if it is in the top 16 and ahead of a BCS conference champion.

ND receives an automatic bid if they are in the top 8.

Look at ND's schedule this year compared to Texas and Alabama and tell me if you think they would have jumped past one of those teams if all three were undefeated.

The last BCS negotiation took away a lot of the benefit that ND got in the original deal.


The Chicago Tribune is now reporting that the Big 10 may add 3 or 5 schools. This doesn't really seem to make financial sense, but it might make sense if your target is ND. Tell me if this makes sense....

If the Chicago Tribune adds 3 or 5, it is likely that at least 2 of those schools come from the Big East. Any damage to the Big East might cause the conference to fall apart, which would leave ND without a good home for their sports other than football (best choice would be either the Atlantic 10 or the Missouri Valley...neither of which is Big East caliber). Given the choice between joining the Big 10 for all sports or remaining a football independent and playing the remainder of their sports in the Atlantic 10 might push ND toward the Big 10.

Of course....this is pure speculation on my part.

[belcherboy]

TCU, as a member of a non-BCS conference, receives an automatic BCS bid if it is rated in the top 12 or if it is in the top 16 and ahead of a BCS conference champion. ND receives an automatic bid if they are in the top 8.

I'll go ahead and say what everyone else knows, Notre Dame gets a BCS bowl game if it is in the top 14 of the BCS. They are WAY too big of a draw.

Look at ND's schedule this year compared to Texas and Alabama and tell me if you think they would have jumped past one of those teams if all three were undefeated.

I agree they probably would not have jumped past Alabama, but it is not like Alabama's and Texas schedule was really that much better. Notre Dame schedules well in advance and who would have predicted 3 years ago that Michigan would be so bad (they still lost to them...which makes me happy as a Michigan fan). It turned out to be a weak schedule, but I don't think Texas has much bragging rights with their schedule this year. Personally I think an undefeated Notre Dame jumps Texas this year, but that is just my personal opinion. I think the NCAA is DYING for a strong Notre Dame program.

The last BCS negotiation took away a lot of the benefit that ND got in the original deal.

Yeah they did! ND still gets $1 million from the BCS every year, no matter what happens. They can go 0-12 and will still get a $1 million check from the BCS, but they will only receive $4.5 million for the BCS bowl game they go to. It used to be $14 million. http://www.fanblogs.com/ncaa/005159.php

The Chicago Tribune is now reporting that the Big 10 may add 3 or 5 schools. This doesn't really seem to make financial sense, but it might make sense if your target is ND. Tell me if this makes sense....

If the Chicago Tribune adds 3 or 5, it is likely that at least 2 of those schools come from the Big East. Any damage to the Big East might cause the conference to fall apart, which would leave ND without a good home for their sports other than football (best choice would be either the Atlantic 10 or the Missouri Valley...neither of which is Big East caliber). Given the choice between joining the Big 10 for all sports or remaining a football independent and playing the remainder of their sports in the Atlantic 10 might push ND toward the Big 10.

Of course....this is pure speculation on my part.

Even if they lost Syracuse, and/or Cincy, and/or Pitt, the Big East will still be around because of basketball. Many schools in the Big East don't care about football (i.e. Georgetown, Seton Hall, St. Johns, Marquette, Providence, DePaul) They have 16 teams in basketball. If they were to lose 2-3 teams, it would hurt, but they would still be a pretty strong basketball conference. The teams that would really hurt would be West Virginia, Louisville, UConn, and South Florida, but I think they could find couple of decent football teams to replace them. There are a few MAC schools that I could see jumping ship for the Big East, and IMO, it would be enough to keep their automatic BCS bid.

The Big East is too strong to fold IMO. I find them the weakest of the automatic BCS conferences, but not too weak that they don't usually deserve at least one team in a BCS bowl game, even if they lost two of their top four teams.

[4everfsu]

ND will not join the Big 10

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4750901

[uncafan]

You're kidding yourself if you think Notre Dame's path to the BCS is similar to TCU's. TCU went undefeated and still only managed to get stuck in the "Separate But Equal Bowl". If Notre Dame had managed to only lose 2 they would receive serious consideration, b/c they are Notre Dame.

TCU, as a member of a non-BCS conference, receives an automatic BCS bid if it is rated in the top 12 or if it is in the top 16 and ahead of a BCS conference champion.

ND receives an automatic bid if they are in the top 8.

Look at ND's schedule this year compared to Texas and Alabama and tell me if you think they would have jumped past one of those teams if all three were undefeated.

The last BCS negotiation took away a lot of the benefit that ND got in the original deal.


The Chicago Tribune is now reporting that the Big 10 may add 3 or 5 schools. This doesn't really seem to make financial sense, but it might make sense if your target is ND. Tell me if this makes sense....

If the Chicago Tribune adds 3 or 5, it is likely that at least 2 of those schools come from the Big East. Any damage to the Big East might cause the conference to fall apart, which would leave ND without a good home for their sports other than football (best choice would be either the Atlantic 10 or the Missouri Valley...neither of which is Big East caliber). Given the choice between joining the Big 10 for all sports or remaining a football independent and playing the remainder of their sports in the Atlantic 10 might push ND toward the Big 10.

Of course....this is pure speculation on my part.

Yes Notre Dame gets an *automatic* bid in the Top 8, but they still go if their in the top 16 (someone said 14 before, but i *think* top 16 makes them eligible, although I'd have to check). That automatic bid means if they are in the top 8 they HAVE to be picked by a BCS bowl....just like the winner of BCS conferences have to be picked. No other team has the luxury of an 'off' year yet still making it. If Florida loses 2 games and finishes 10th - 14th they almost definitely aren't going to a BCS bowl. I Note Dame loses 2 games and finishes 14th they are in. Look at the final standings for this year the following teams were left out but if Notre Dame finishes with the same record/standing they are definitely in (probably in place of Iowa): Va Tech (11th), LSU (12th), PSU (13th), BYU (14th), Miami (15th).

Don't forget...the 11 NCAA 1a conferences have a representative on the BCS board, and Notre Dame's athletic director is also on the board (among a few other permanent members). So think about that, Alabama/Florida/LSU etc =1 vote Ohio state/PSU/Iowa/Mich=1 vote ND=1 vote. ND still has a lot of power and a lot of advantages in this system