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College Basketball Refs

Posted: November 18th, 2009, 6:53 pm
by Liberty4Life
...this just in: NCAA refs are really flawed. I wonder how much of these stats can be chalked up to the lousiness of Duke Edsall.

Some findings:
* The probability of a foul being called on the visiting team was 7 percent higher than on the home team.
* When the home team is leading, the probability of the next foul being called on them is about 6.3 percentage points higher than when the home team is trailing.
* The larger the foul differential between two teams, the greater the likelihood that the next call will be made against the team with fewer fouls. For example, when a home team has three or more fouls than the visiting team, the probability that the next foul call is made against the visiting team is more than 60 percent. When the foul differential is as high as five, then that probability rises to 69 percent. The researchers also observed this trend when they looked at neutral-court games.
http://newsinfo.iu.edu/news/page/normal/12590.html

Re: College Basketball Refs

Posted: November 19th, 2009, 10:03 am
by blwall1416
Liberty4Life wrote:...this just in: NCAA refs are really flawed.
If you haven't done it, don't knock it.

Re: College Basketball Refs

Posted: November 19th, 2009, 10:41 am
by Hold My Own
I laugh every time i hear Duke Edsall....holy cow I wish all our games were televised back then to show how bad he truly was. He was awful.

Re: College Basketball Refs

Posted: November 19th, 2009, 10:47 am
by Rocketfan
Hold My Own wrote:I laugh every time i hear Duke Edsall....holy cow I wish all our games were televised back then to show how bad he truly was. He was awful.
We have never agreed more on one single subject.....

Re: College Basketball Refs

Posted: November 19th, 2009, 1:22 pm
by Hold My Own
Rocketfan wrote:
Hold My Own wrote:I laugh every time i hear Duke Edsall....holy cow I wish all our games were televised back then to show how bad he truly was. He was awful.
We have never agreed more on one single subject.....

All in all he must have been a good official though b/c he got some good games....he must have just truly hated us...he cost us so many games its sad...I mean the most blatant calls that rips a win out of your hands and leaves everyone speechless...happened a number of times

Re: College Basketball Refs

Posted: November 19th, 2009, 2:46 pm
by blwall1416
The game is officiated in a manner consistent with the supervisor of officials for that particular conference. Not that they are trying to determine a particular outcome; rather the way they want the game officiated.

Re: College Basketball Refs

Posted: November 19th, 2009, 4:17 pm
by Sly Fox
blwall1416 wrote:The game is officiated in a manner consistent with the supervisor of officials for that particular conference. Not that they are trying to determine a particular outcome; rather the way they want the game officiated.
:lol:

Re: College Basketball Refs

Posted: November 21st, 2009, 12:50 am
by JMUDukes
As a current ref I say it's a no win situation, but it's also really stupidly easy to have an ax grind, and grind it during a game.

Re: College Basketball Refs

Posted: November 21st, 2009, 9:14 pm
by flamesbball84
question: if a player clearly wraps both arms around an opponent in order to prevent him from shooting, it's an intentional foul, correct?

Re: College Basketball Refs

Posted: November 21st, 2009, 11:26 pm
by Kolzilla41
flamesbball84 wrote:question: if a player clearly wraps both arms around an opponent in order to prevent him from shooting, it's an intentional foul, correct?
Not if you are a Ratfurd player.

Re: College Basketball Refs

Posted: November 22nd, 2009, 12:25 am
by flamesbball84
flamerbob wrote:
flamesbball84 wrote:question: if a player clearly wraps both arms around an opponent in order to prevent him from shooting, it's an intentional foul, correct?
Not if you are a Ratfurd player.
I'm just wondering because I saw it happen in a game today and it very well could have cost the losing team the game. Losing team was down 3 and got wrapped up to prevent the three point shot, which should have been an intentional foul allowing the team to shoot 2 and get the ball back, but they just called a reach in foul with 1 second left so the team had zero chance to win the game after that.

Re: College Basketball Refs

Posted: November 22nd, 2009, 11:09 am
by Liberty4Life
blwall1416 wrote:
Liberty4Life wrote:...this just in: NCAA refs are really flawed.
If you haven't done it, don't knock it.
By that same logic, we should only have four or five people vote for President of the United States.

Re: College Basketball Refs

Posted: November 24th, 2009, 11:13 am
by blwall1416
Here's how big a BS article this is....
"To avoid the effect of trailing teams intentionally fouling at the ends of games, only foul calls in the first half were included."
From my observations, a lopsided foul count in the first half is just as likely as not to be come a lopsided foul count -- the other direction -- in the second half. Too bad the esteemed professors weren't willing to extend their research to see how things happen in the second half.

....................
"Anderson does not believe that this phenomenon is caused by any changes in coaching strategy or aggressive play by players."
Really? So the same aggressive play that explains my team's being up by 10 has zero bearing on the fact that the losing team is more likely to foul? That the defense is having to "play harder" to defend the more aggressive team is in no way likely to lead to committing more fouls? Interesting. And from what objective measure does Anderson draw his conclusions about coaching strategy or aggressive play?

....................
"There's clearly a score effect on both sides. The team that is leading is more likely to get a foul call."
I would certainly think so. Not only is the losing team having to "play harder" on defense, but the winning team has a few points to give and thus does not have to be so aggressive on defense. If you're up by five, and your guy beats you, the smart play is to let him go and allow your teammates to help.

....................
"Unless the NCAA can come up with some way to address this, there's always going to be an advantage to the more aggressive team," he added.
Can you name me a single sport, a real honest-to-goodness sport where competitors go head to head, where aggressiveness is not a common trait among the victors?

....................
"Our broader, bigger picture point is anytime you're making a subjective judgment under uncertainty, you're likely to take into account the past decisions that you've made,"
What was that big word I had to learn in my freshman English class....starts with a 'c'...cookie, cooperation, CONSISTENCY! Isn't that pretty much the definition of consistency?

....................
"The professors believe their results match up well with the observed behavior of basketball teams over the last 25 years, when play became increasingly aggressive."
At last, the bias of the authors of the study. "The game is too aggressive now, not like it was back when we played. Back then you had to have skills and footwork and be able to shoot a set shot and we like totally had jump ball plays and everything."

The basis of this study is flawed. What did they expect? That at any point in any game there would be an exact 50% probability of a foul being called on either team? That could only be expected if each team played with exactly a 50% chance of being the next team to commit a foul. And that just ain't ever likely to happen.

Re: College Basketball Refs

Posted: November 24th, 2009, 11:34 am
by PAmedic
thank you, Mr. Sensitive





8)

Re: College Basketball Refs

Posted: November 24th, 2009, 11:36 am
by blwall1416
PAmedic wrote:thank you, Mr. Sensitive

8)

Ha.....its the old saying:

"Figures don't lie......but liars can figure."