[flamesbball84]

I never said the OL would dominate, but the Pats OL will do significantly better than the Indy OL did.

Way to back off sir. You just said they were the best in the league and that their protection is unparalleled, and now you didn't say they would dominate. Shouldn't the best O line dominate?

Look, It's all steam and fluff until game time. The best to your team, the best O line, Brady, Moroney, Moss, and the grand cheating genious. I hope they all play well so there will be no excuses.
I just want folks to stop counting the Chargers out of every game and discounting great individual performances on a whim!

By the way I don't completely disagree with the quoted statement, but I think Significant is way to strong and adjective. Better maybe.

Since when did "best" mean "dominate every game"? Randy Moss and TO are the two best WRs in the game, they don't dominate every game. LT is the RB in the NFL and he hasn't dominated every game. The Giants have quite possibly the best DL in the NFL, they haven't dominated every game. I'm not "counting out" the Chargers. I think they can give the Pats a heck of a game, just like I thought the Jaguars could, I just don't think they can win it without being close to flawless.

[BJWilliams]

I am not a kool-aid drinker by any means (heck, Im not even a Patriots fan). But I decided to look up the previous meeting between the CHargers and the Patriots (week 2). The Chargers had every one of the players you mentioned in your post Knucklehead and here are the Patriots stats from that game:


Tom Brady: 25/31 279 3 TDs 1 INT (even though he got sacked twice by Merriman)
Laurence Maroney: 15 carries 77 yards (course when your passing game is working you dont need to run 20+ times a game)
Randy Moss: 8 catches 105 yards 2TDs

The Patriots as a team had over 400 yards of offense (407 to be exact). I am sure that the Chargers are going to come to play knowing that the country does not think they have a chance. If San Diego can get their running game going and give Philip Rivers time, they have a chance to pull it off like they did against the Colts. I really do not see it happening. I see this one going the Pats way by 7-10 points. bball makes a good point bringing up Tom Brady's numbers against the blitz. What is the best remedy against a good pass rushing team? short drops and quick passes so that by the time the rush gets to the QB, the ball is already down the field. The Patriots have played down to their competition of late I will admit that, but frankly, I think their bus is going to roll into Glendale after this weekend.

[RubberMallet]

Their protection of BRady has been unparalleled in the NFl for a LONG time.

i agree their o-line is the best in the nfl but when it comes to pass protection, GB and NO have been just as good if not better....

[Knucklehead]

I never said the OL would dominate, but the Pats OL will do significantly better than the Indy OL did.

Way to back off sir. You just said they were the best in the league and that their protection is unparalleled, and now you didn't say they would dominate. Shouldn't the best O line dominate?

Look, It's all steam and fluff until game time. The best to your team, the best O line, Brady, Moroney, Moss, and the grand cheating genious. I hope they all play well so there will be no excuses.
I just want folks to stop counting the Chargers out of every game and discounting great individual performances on a whim!

By the way I don't completely disagree with the quoted statement, but I think Significant is way to strong and adjective. Better maybe.

Since when did "best" mean "dominate every game"? Randy Moss and TO are the two best WRs in the game, they don't dominate every game. LT is the RB in the NFL and he hasn't dominated every game. The Giants have quite possibly the best DL in the NFL, they haven't dominated every game. I'm not "counting out" the Chargers. I think they can give the Pats a heck of a game, just like I thought the Jaguars could, I just don't think they can win it without being close to flawless.

We actually agree. We must be close to flawless and get at least 2 turnovers and loads of pressure.

[RubberMallet]

I am not a kool-aid drinker by any means (heck, Im not even a Patriots fan). But I decided to look up the previous meeting between the CHargers and the Patriots (week 2). The Chargers had every one of the players you mentioned in your post Knucklehead and here are the Patriots stats from that game:


Tom Brady: 25/31 279 3 TDs 1 INT (even though he got sacked twice by Merriman)
Laurence Maroney: 15 carries 77 yards (course when your passing game is working you dont need to run 20+ times a game)
Randy Moss: 8 catches 105 yards 2TDs

The Patriots as a team had over 400 yards of offense (407 to be exact)..

this is all well and good but i think most will admit....thats not the same san diego team that we are seeing now....new coaching scheme and all...

[Knucklehead]

I am not a kool-aid drinker by any means (heck, Im not even a Patriots fan). But I decided to look up the previous meeting between the CHargers and the Patriots (week 2). The Chargers had every one of the players you mentioned in your post Knucklehead and here are the Patriots stats from that game:


Tom Brady: 25/31 279 3 TDs 1 INT (even though he got sacked twice by Merriman)
Laurence Maroney: 15 carries 77 yards (course when your passing game is working you dont need to run 20+ times a game)
Randy Moss: 8 catches 105 yards 2TDs

The Patriots as a team had over 400 yards of offense (407 to be exact). I am sure that the Chargers are going to come to play knowing that the country does not think they have a chance. If San Diego can get their running game going and give Philip Rivers time, they have a chance to pull it off like they did against the Colts. I really do not see it happening. I see this one going the Pats way by 7-10 points. bball makes a good point bringing up Tom Brady's numbers against the blitz. What is the best remedy against a good pass rushing team? short drops and quick passes so that by the time the rush gets to the QB, the ball is already down the field. The Patriots have played down to their competition of late I will admit that, but frankly, I think their bus is going to roll into Glendale after this weekend.

Every analist has said the Chargers are a totally different team NOW than the team that went 1-3. It took time for the new coaches and the players to gel. The 2 teams that really had a shot to beat the Pats were Philly and the Giants, and they got good penetration and pressure on Brady. They both ran the ball well. They both threw for average yards. I'm not sure but I'd bet both forced turnovers.
We have a shot, and that's all I'm saying!

[BJWilliams]

Im not saying they don't. Im just saying that Belichick and the boys Im sure are very aware that this is not the same Chargers team from the start of the season. Im saying that the Patriots are pretty much unstoppable right now. Even when Philly and the Giants got pressure on Brady, the Patriots adjusted, and they found a way to win. That is what the best teams do.


Oh and as a side note, its "analyst"

[RagingTireFire]

Every analist has said the Chargers are a totally different team NOW than the team that went 1-3.

Anal-ist? If you were quoting analysts I'd more inclined to listen but anal-ists? I pay no attention to them. There's just no telling where their heads are at.

[Knucklehead]

eew! See! Why didn't win the GMTM adard?
EDIT: see I caught that one an hour later, it's AWARD not adard!

[flamesbball84]

anyone who thinks the Pats will dominate the Chargers they way they did in Week 2 is an idiot. Could they? It's certainly in the realm of possibility, but this Chargers team is drastically better than the one faced in Week 2. At most, the Pats win this one by a close 14, but I think 7-10 is the most likely margin of victory regardless of who wins. Even if the run game isn't working, I imagine the Pats will do like they did all day against the Giants and do that "dink and dunk" passing game (which is basically just another way to run the ball) that led to only two Brady incompletions and both of those were drops. I don't see it being as effective against the Chargers, but it's pretty darn close to unstoppable unless you play the corners right on top of the receivers, but then they can get more deep passes...

[Knucklehead]

Best post yyou've had on the topic. Great insight!

[flamesbball84]

here's an interesting article from espn.com on their accuscore simulation of the game. now keep in mind, before the NE vs. Inday game, accuscore simulated the Pats going undefeated in 30% of its 1000 simulations. They also did an Accuscore before the game under the assumption NE would win, and then it said that NE had a 60% chance of going undefeated. This article is absse don the results of the simulation (I'm assumming they did 1000 again this time), so it's not a writer's opinion and what not. So this Accuscore thing is a pretty solid simulation program it looks like to me...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs0 ... id=3196392

The Patriots are winning nearly 90 percent of simulations and converting over 53 percent of third downs. Patriots QB Tom Brady completes 70 percent of his passes for 333 yards and more than three touchdown passes per simulation. Even if LaDainian Tomlinson, Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates were healthy, the Patriots would be heavy favorites at home.

Laurence Maroney is actually out-rushing Tomlinson in both yards per carry and total rushing yards

For San Diego to pull off the upset, it needs Rivers to pass for at least two touchdowns and no interceptions. In simulation losses, Rivers averages one touchdown pass and 1.1 interceptions, but in simulation wins he has a three-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio.

there's a less than 10 percent chance that Brady throws more than two picks.

In simulations where Tomlinson is out, the Chargers are winning 9.5 percent of the time. With Tomlinson playing, they win 10.6 percent of the time. If Rivers is out, the Chargers are winning 9.8 percent of simulations compared with 10.6 percent with Rivers.

In simulations where Cromartie does not play, the Chargers are winning just 7.4 percent of the time. In this specific matchup, Cromartie is having a larger impact on the outcome than offensive stars such as Tomlinson and Rivers.

In simulations where Welker does not play, the Patriots are winning 84 percent of the time -- a drop of nearly 5.5 percentage points. Brady's forecasted passing yards are 333 yards with Welker, but just 295 without him.

[Knucklehead]

here's an interesting article from espn.com on their accuscore simulation of the game. now keep in mind, before the NE vs. Inday game, accuscore simulated the Pats going undefeated in 30% of its 1000 simulations. They also did an Accuscore before the game under the assumption NE would win, and then it said that NE had a 60% chance of going undefeated. This article is absse don the results of the simulation (I'm assumming they did 1000 again this time), so it's not a writer's opinion and what not. So this Accuscore thing is a pretty solid simulation program it looks like to me...

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs0 ... id=3196392

The Patriots are winning nearly 90 percent of simulations and converting over 53 percent of third downs. Patriots QB Tom Brady completes 70 percent of his passes for 333 yards and more than three touchdown passes per simulation. Even if LaDainian Tomlinson, Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates were healthy, the Patriots would be heavy favorites at home.

Laurence Maroney is actually out-rushing Tomlinson in both yards per carry and total rushing yards

For San Diego to pull off the upset, it needs Rivers to pass for at least two touchdowns and no interceptions. In simulation losses, Rivers averages one touchdown pass and 1.1 interceptions, but in simulation wins he has a three-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio.

there's a less than 10 percent chance that Brady throws more than two picks.

In simulations where Tomlinson is out, the Chargers are winning 9.5 percent of the time. With Tomlinson playing, they win 10.6 percent of the time. If Rivers is out, the Chargers are winning 9.8 percent of simulations compared with 10.6 percent with Rivers.

In simulations where Cromartie does not play, the Chargers are winning just 7.4 percent of the time. In this specific matchup, Cromartie is having a larger impact on the outcome than offensive stars such as Tomlinson and Rivers.

In simulations where Welker does not play, the Patriots are winning 84 percent of the time -- a drop of nearly 5.5 percentage points. Brady's forecasted passing yards are 333 yards with Welker, but just 295 without him.

Great another computer to tell us the future. I guess since the computer rankings for the BCS have been so great, let's use it some more. It's all crap!

[flamesbball84]

Tecmo Bowl has correctly predicted 75% of the games in the playoffs so far (with each teams' current roster, of course), including the CHargers over Indy. So I simulated the Chargers at NE 5 times (I dont ahve time for 1000 simulations!) and the Pats won 23-17, 35-14, 28-6, 35-14 and SD won the 5th game 35-24. I would have done ten, but I honestly got tired of doing it...

[RubberMallet]

or you could of used that horrible site that o'dude who did the college football playoffs used

[flamesfilmguy]

I hate the patriots and their pretty boy tom.

[Knucklehead]

I hate the patriots and their pretty boy tom.

Let's beat him!

[flamesbball84]

if the forecast holds, and with weather forecasts these days it could change 50 times between now and Sunday, it looks like it will turn into a short passing and running game, which the pats have proven to be better at both in the playoffs. the colder it is, the better it is for the Pats because the Chargers, an Rivers specifically, aren't all that good in cold weather...

[Knucklehead]

You are NUTS.
I've heard 3 analysts today say it favoers SD. Besides a short game allows us to pick apart the old men in the middle for the Pats in coverage. LT and Sproles vs Seau and Vrabel is a mismatch favoring SD.

[thepostman]

knucklehead is right...this will hurt the Pats more then the Chargers...but will it hurt them enough?? probably not....but if I were a Chargers fan I would be reaching for any positives going into this game that I could...

[Knucklehead]

Look, I REALLY think the Bolts have a decent chance to win. Now with the forecast it's a good chance. Our O line will open holes for LT, Sproles, or Turner. It may take a while to get it going, but it will thrive. The short passing game will thrive (especially over the middle) with either Rivers or Volek. The bad weather will effectively null the advantage the Pats would have due to the Bolts injuries.

On defense, Maroney will get his yards, but we will eat Brady alive as he tries to throw into stacked coverage across the middle while running away from the constant pressure.

Look, the Pats, should still win either way, but I refuse to count this Charger team out in any personnel look. I want the normal studs obviously, but we'll see. I am picking the Chargers in a close game in the upper 20s to low 30s.

[flamesbball84]

You are NUTS.
I've heard 3 analysts today say it favoers SD. Besides a short game allows us to pick apart the old men in the middle for the Pats in coverage. LT and Sproles vs Seau and Vrabel is a mismatch favoring SD.

So, all the analysts were picking INDY TO BEAT SD!!! You of all people should know the analysts don't always know what they are talking about!

[Knucklehead]

I 100% agree. I was simply responding to another one of your "statements of fact". First you say NE's O line is the best in the world, and now you say the short game caused by weather favors NE because Maroney is better than LT. That is obviously not exactly how you said it, but in reality it is what you said.

Our quickness vs your Old me in the middle = MISSMATCH!

Maroney will do OK 75-100 yds rushing.

But there is no doubt in my mind that this style would favor SD for my reasons above.

[Knucklehead]

By the way, someone help me underdtand why I am arguing with a guy who uses Techmo Bowl as a valid argument why his team will win.

-DEL- Rude comment omitted

[flamesbball84]

I 100% agree. I was simply responding to another one of your "statements of fact". First you say NE's O line is the best in the world, and now you say the short game caused by weather favors NE because Maroney is better than LT. That is obviously not exactly how you said it, but in reality it is what you said.

Our quickness vs your Old me in the middle = MISSMATCH!

Maroney will do OK 75-100 yds rushing.

But there is no doubt in my mind that this style would favor SD for my reasons above.

The stats say NE's rushing game has been better than the Colts. LT is a better RB than Maroney, I never said that and you know it, but you can't deny the fact that he has been more productive in the playoffs than LT and maroney played against a Jaguars rush D that is pretty solid. I also said the short game favors NE because of passing, once again being oblivious to the fact that Tom Brady shredded the Jacksonville D with short passing, adn that is just another way to run the ball is what it amounts to, and the NE receivers are much better than SD's. Those old LBs and Dlinemen shut down the second best rushing team in the NFL in Jacksonville, but I guess you are just going to ignore that as well...