[Sly Fox]

As I mentioned the other day in this thread, we are more likely to land in the Pac or AAC than the Belt. And none of those are very likely at all. The Belt is not happening. The hate from their administrators is real.

With Texas State apparently balking at the MWC overtures, I suspect that they may be on the verge of getting a Pac or AAC invitation. The MWC made no sense for the Bobcats. But I can understand them using that as leverage to try and entice more attractive options.

If Tarleton somehow against all odds winds up in the MWC, we dodged a bullet. We won't want them in CUSA and they can be someone else's problem.

To put this in Virginian standards, think of Longwood with a developing football program.

[LUOrange]

As I mentioned the other day in this thread, we are more likely to land in the Pac or AAC than the Belt. And none of those are very likely at all. The Belt is not happening. The hate from their administrators is real.

With Texas State apparently balking at the MWC overtures, I suspect that they may be on the verge of getting a Pac or AAC invitation. The MWC made no sense for the Bobcats. But I can understand them using that as leverage to try and entice more attractive options.

If Tarleton somehow against all odds winds up in the MWC, we dodged a bullet. We won't want them in CUSA and they can be someone else's problem.

To put this in Virginian standards, think of Longwood with a developing football program.

I thought that the last go round with the SBC prior to our joining CUSA, that the unofficial vote was still somewhat close just with enough of the western schools blocking us from the 75% thresh hold. Doesn't them adding Marshall, JMU & ODU help us? Has things changed or were the unofficial reports from 3-4 years ago wrong?

[Sly Fox]

It was much deeper than what you described. Marshall & ODU were out advocates but the resistance wasn't just the western schools who wanted expansion their direction. It was the underfunded state schools across the Deep South who looked at our budget and wanted no piece of being aligned with us, Religious bigotry by university presidents and Jr.'s issues only accentuated the resistance.

Today our success on the football field only confirms their fears that we could buy our way to a position of strength. SBC schools want none of that disadvantageous arrangement.

To a certain degree, the AAC has similar concerns. Of course most of their schools have budgets as high or higher than ours. So they don't fear our position. But the scandals have left a stain. Time will likely heal those wounds. Perhaps desperation after losing a bunch of teams will render everything else pointless and we will be invited. Who knows?

Desperation is how we got into an FBS conference in the first place. It likely will be the primary driver why we end up in our next league. I am cool with that being the impetus.

There may come a point where the Pac reaches that level of desperation if Memphis and the other AAC schools continue to rebuff their overtures. The one thing that we offer the Pac is the ability to join their league quickly with an Eastern Time Zone location. You might think that geography is not our friend in such a situation. You would be correct ... for the most part. Having a school or two in the Eastern Half of the US would actually help the Pac in their next round of media negotations with inventory. Particularly if they are trying to attract a player other than ESPN or Fox who have the ET & CT zones sewed up. But any of the new media that are dipping their toes in the sportscasting waters would love the scheduling flexibility. They also would value more inventory of reasonably attractive matchups.

If we were to be invited to the Pac or AAC, it would likely be with partial shares or an SMU-like deal where we forego media payouts for a few years. Both might be attractive to the Pac. Such an arrangement would likely be to the AAC as well. In a perfect world we are respected for the athletics programs that we possess. But that's years away from reality.

[tyndal23]

It was much deeper than what you described. Marshall & ODU were out advocates but the resistance wasn't just the western schools who wanted expansion their direction. It was the underfunded state schools across the Deep South who looked at our budget and wanted no piece of being aligned with us, Religious bigotry by university presidents and Jr.'s issues only accentuated the resistance.

Today our success on the football field only confirms their fears that we could buy our way to a position of strength. SBC schools want none of that disadvantageous arrangement.

To a certain degree, the AAC has similar concerns. Of course most of their schools have budgets as high or higher than ours. So they don't fear our position. But the scandals have left a stain. Time will likely heal those wounds. Perhaps desperation after losing a bunch of teams will render everything else pointless and we will be invited. Who knows?

Desperation is how we got into an FBS conference in the first place. It likely will be the primary driver why we end up in our next league. I am cool with that being the impetus.

There may come a point where the Pac reaches that level of desperation if Memphis and the other AAC schools continue to rebuff their overtures. The one thing that we offer the Pac is the ability to join their league quickly with an Eastern Time Zone location. You might think that geography is not our friend in such a situation. You would be correct ... for the most part. Having a school or two in the Eastern Half of the US would actually help the Pac in their next round of media negotations with inventory. Particularly if they are trying to attract a player other than ESPN or Fox who have the ET & CT zones sewed up. But any of the new media that are dipping their toes in the sportscasting waters would love the scheduling flexibility. They also would value more inventory of reasonably attractive matchups.

If we were to be invited to the Pac or AAC, it would likely be with partial shares or an SMU-like deal where we forego media payouts for a few years. Both might be attractive to the Pac. Such an arrangement would likely be to the AAC as well. In a perfect world we are respected for the athletics programs that we possess. But that's years away from reality.

Agree on adding 1 east coast team might be a TV driver for PAC - but again - why would any Conference choose LU over JMU. We are identical in TV market and the market isn't big enough to justify taking both schools and as far as the "travel partner" lingo - not something that I have seen come as consideration for any of the recent realignment. JMU is the media darling with no perceived baggage. UConn "football only" to offset Gonzaga "basketball only" makes more sense than either JMU or Liberty. I could see them taking UConn and JMU ( just for the 8th full member status ) if they get desperate.

[Sly Fox]

I am not sure that if offered JMU would accept. The idea of a Western-based league for a school that recuits students almost exclusively up and down the Eastern seaboard is a stretch strategically.

The only reason why would be amenable is because of our broader mission and national aspirations.

As for UConn football, it could happen. Of course the Pac would be getting these least attractive asset from UConn. They would have to receive some agreement for more basketball games as part of any deal.

[Humble_Opinion]

Agree on adding 1 east coast team might be a TV driver for PAC - but again - why would any Conference choose LU over JMU. We are identical in TV market and the market isn't big enough to justify taking both schools and as far as the "travel partner" lingo - not something that I have seen come as consideration for any of the recent realignment. JMU is the media darling with no perceived baggage. UConn "football only" to offset Gonzaga "basketball only" makes more sense than either JMU or Liberty. I could see them taking UConn and JMU ( just for the 8th full member status ) if they get desperate.

If the PAC reaches the point of needing to add a team on the East coast then that is desperation on their part at that point. Would we be their first choice? Likely not. However, there are very few teams in the eastern based G6 conferences that will have an appetite to move to the PAC. It appears the AAC is closed, which leaves the SBC, MAC, and CUSA. The list of teams that could increase their budgets to match the PAC is going to be small, because the growth in TV Revenue is not going to be as great with the reformed PAC (estimates are ~$5M/yr). The SBC pays out around $1M on average, leaving a net gain of $4M, which is a sizeable jump, but likely not enough to cover the delta in expenses to make them competitive with the other PAC members. JMU is likely one of the few teams outside of us that could do it, but what benefit would it give them? The PAC is not going to represent a major step-up in competition (from their point of view) and the travel logistics are going to pose a problem and added expense. I don't really think there's any other team outside of JMU in the SBC that would consider it. Besides us, I don't think there's anyone in the CUSA. UCONN makes some sense, but would they hold their nose to join a new G6 conference (even as a FB only) when they left the AAC 4 years ago? I don't know... I don't think they would go for it. They appear to be holding out for an invite to the BIG XII or ACC, which helps us in this situation.

[prototype]

It was much deeper than what you described. Marshall & ODU were out advocates but the resistance wasn't just the western schools who wanted expansion their direction. It was the underfunded state schools across the Deep South who looked at our budget and wanted no piece of being aligned with us, Religious bigotry by university presidents and Jr.'s issues only accentuated the resistance.

Today our success on the football field only confirms their fears that we could buy our way to a position of strength. SBC schools want none of that disadvantageous arrangement.

To a certain degree, the AAC has similar concerns. Of course most of their schools have budgets as high or higher than ours. So they don't fear our position. But the scandals have left a stain. Time will likely heal those wounds. Perhaps desperation after losing a bunch of teams will render everything else pointless and we will be invited. Who knows?

Desperation is how we got into an FBS conference in the first place. It likely will be the primary driver why we end up in our next league. I am cool with that being the impetus.

There may come a point where the Pac reaches that level of desperation if Memphis and the other AAC schools continue to rebuff their overtures. The one thing that we offer the Pac is the ability to join their league quickly with an Eastern Time Zone location. You might think that geography is not our friend in such a situation. You would be correct ... for the most part. Having a school or two in the Eastern Half of the US would actually help the Pac in their next round of media negotations with inventory. Particularly if they are trying to attract a player other than ESPN or Fox who have the ET & CT zones sewed up. But any of the new media that are dipping their toes in the sportscasting waters would love the scheduling flexibility. They also would value more inventory of reasonably attractive matchups.

If we were to be invited to the Pac or AAC, it would likely be with partial shares or an SMU-like deal where we forego media payouts for a few years. Both might be attractive to the Pac. Such an arrangement would likely be to the AAC as well. In a perfect world we are respected for the athletics programs that we possess. But that's years away from reality.

Agree on adding 1 east coast team might be a TV driver for PAC - but again - why would any Conference choose LU over JMU. We are identical in TV market and the market isn't big enough to justify taking both schools and as far as the "travel partner" lingo - not something that I have seen come as consideration for any of the recent realignment. JMU is the media darling with no perceived baggage. UConn "football only" to offset Gonzaga "basketball only" makes more sense than either JMU or Liberty. I could see them taking UConn and JMU ( just for the 8th full member status ) if they get desperate.

I agree with a lot of what you said other then then market size. Our MSA is much larger then JMU's and our reach is tremendously bigger with over 120,000 students. Yes, a lot of those are online, but they're still affiliated and we are graduating alumni at a 80,000+ size... (not size of graduating class, size of a University with as many graduates)

I don't the scandal means much at this point. It really didn't involve the school, and I think it's more of an issue that we are private and Christian... Maybe the Sunbelt eventually figures out that having all that money in their conference and the facilities Liberty brings to the table - that it might be worth it.

[Sly Fox]

So it appears it will be wait and see if the AAC schools will bite after the poaching fees lawsuit gets settled.

[ballcoach15]

PAC 12, 10, 9 or whatever, should not add east coast teams. By same token, ACC should not add west coast teams. These conference commissioners need to return to Middle School and enroll in Geography Class.

[Sly Fox]

The MWC is not attractive at all to us. But the brands in the Pac have some juice. Just remember that Wazzu & Oregon State have maintained control of this expansion process. The newcomers have less say in where the heads next.

One other factor in our favor that makes us viable to the Pac is that we have baseball & softball. Out west that is not a given. Neither is present in the Montanas or Dakotas where the Pac could look to the FCS level if they get really desperate. And Oregon State in particular values baseball significantly.

[ballcoach15]

Oregon State is a "baseball school". As much softball as is played on west coast, it's hard to believe there are colleges out there that do not field a team.

[Sly Fox]

The candidates they are considering in the west are in places like Montana & the Dakotas where the ability to play baseball/softball in February & March is minimal.

[aj7]

If Texas State makes a move to the Pac or AAC who would the Sun Belt replace them with? As mentioned above, the AAC isn't really going to be raided. Would they actually want Sam Houston St? WKU and MTSU don't fit as well for a west division...and aren't the most inspiring on the field.

I don't know if Liberty gets an invite anywhere, but I do know that the PAC and MWC are pretty desperate for more teams right now. If they go FCS then the bleeding stops. If not, there will be chain reactions and the AAC of Sun Belt will need to make calls to schools they don't want to.

[Sly Fox]

Most expect the Sun Belt to look toward former Belter Western Kentucky or MTSU or Louisiana Tech. That implies that they actually try to backfill. That is not a certainty. But yes, Sammy would be a possible option for them. They picked a good season to be good once again after a couple of years of being subpar.

The Pac is a long shot but not out of the question for us. It has a much more attractive lineup. Can you imagine Gonzaga rolling up to face the Flames in Lynchburg? Or how about bouncing between playing on the Smurf Turf and having Boise State on the mountain? Yes, please. Depending on who else joins the league could be very enticing. The reason why we would be in play is that any AAC schools would not likely be able to join in time to keep the league auto-bid eligible in most sports. We are one of a very small handful of schools who could make the league and have a respectable football program. Texas State may have geography but not the football track record we have over the past five years.

The MWC offers us very little over our current circumstances in CUSA. Sure it would be great to be in the same league with UNLV and Air Force. But otherwise we would be facing CUSA level teams on the other side of the nation. No thanks.

[ATrain]

Memphis and the PAC are talking again

[Sly Fox]

If the Pac is not offering an invitation to Texas State right now, it is because they still haven;t given up on Memphis and the other AAC schools. Their first offer was a paltry amount to help with AAC exit fees and a promise that the league would be able to score a $10M/team media deal. That was pure speculation and everyone recognized it. Now the league is shopping around to gauge a ballpark they can expect in the next deal. This shouldn't take terribly long. Then again the last time that the Pac tried to get a media deal it was such a disaster that it nearly killed the conference.

We are nothing more than a dark horse at this stage. But the events that occur in coming weeks will give us much more clarity.

And to the knuckleheads on Twitter stating that there is ZERO chance of Liberty having any interest in the Pac are not dialed in. These individual fans may not have interest. But that is not likely the situation in Ian's office.

[Kricket]

It’s not from the Liberty side that there is no interest.

[Sly Fox]

If the Pac possesses any interest at all in us it would be because we are easy to move over their way quickly. That's part of why they have also looked at Texas State. It is tough to extract schools from the AAC where their first choices are located.

[jmclaughlin]

Glad so many of you are keeping up. I get dizzy just trying to project what is coming next. ‘Club music playing and I only know a few line dances.

[ATrain]

Investing in research, like VCU, would also go a long ways towards making us more attractive to the presidents who "care about academics."
https://richmond.com/news/local/busines ... p-homepage

[ATrain]

Brett McMurphy reporting that Hawaii is in discussions with the Mountain West to join as a full member. Hawaii's basketball programs and Olympic sports are currently housed in the Big West Conference, where New Mexico State was when that conference sponsored football. The Mountain West will still need one more full member to get to 8.

[ballcoach15]

Investing in research, like VCU, would also go a long ways towards making us more attractive to the presidents who "care about academics."
https://richmond.com/news/local/busines ... p-homepage

When it comes to realignment, most presidents don't care about academics. even if they say they do.

(Louisville got in ACC)

[aj7]

If Memphis and/or other AAC teams jumped to the Pac-12 we'd fit their mold much better than the Sun Belt schools they could go after. Lynchburg isn't the big city like Dallas, Houston, or Philadelphia, but it's better than Hattiesburg, Troy, and Statesboro. Georgia State is the one Sun Belt team that fits slightly better than us.

[Sly Fox]

Georgia State is likely content to stay in the Belt. The ACC would likely look at App State & JMU. It is not a certainty that either of those schools would jump to the AAC.

[ATrain]

Georgia State is likely content to stay in the Belt. The ACC would likely look at App State & JMU. It is not a certainty that either of those schools would jump to the AAC.

Marshall and ODU may also be on the AAC's radar.