Now is a great moment for us all to catch our collective breath. The events of the next few days will all have direct implications on multiple decisions that could go any number of directions. And let me blunt, the timing of all of this is not in our favor.
Pac-12
Let's start where all the attention is focused at the moment. The illusion that this P5 couldn't die is now gone. I think everyone now expects that the remainder of the Four Corners schools are destined for the Big XII and that Washington & Oregon will likely be out as well. The latter two could be possibly headed at reduced rate to B1G or possibly join the 4C schools in Big XII. Regardless of where they go, that leaves the Pac with the following schools:
Cal
Stanford
Oregon State
Washington State
It is possible that Stanford & Cal get a life raft to one of the above leagues. It is also possible the two schools go indy in football and park other sports in Big West. But essentially you willfind the Pac left in a lonely scenario. But,But ... A5 status? Am I right? Well, that is not an iron-clad situation. But what about all of the exit fees the remaining schools will be collecting from the dpeartures of USC/UCLA and the rest? There are no exit fees in the Pac-12. But at least they would have a television contract, right? That's how they got in this mess in the first place.
That leaves tow paths moving forward for the Pac-12: Expansion or Extinction. Honestly I am not sure which is more likely. But either path will have similar impacts in the realignment landscape. The Pac could take the best of the MWC and perhaps even a few random AAC schools and move forward, This is a likely scenario from my perspective. Think of it as a glorified Mountain West. There is also the possibility that the Pac & MWC could straught up merge exisitng assets. That is a legitimate possibility andlikely would result in the least amount of dominoes falling out of the west.
Mountain West
Assuming that the MWC is only pillaged by whatever is left of the Pac, they will likely be looking torestock with a few teams as well. The obvious choices in their current footprint would be CUSA brethren UTEP & NMSU. I don't see them adding the Dakota States or Montanas simply because there isn't enough revenue to spread around the league. I also believe that it is unlikely that any AAC schools bolt due to excessive exit fees and little ROI on the moving costs. But it is possible.
It is also possible that commissioner Gloria Narvaez' public acknowledgements a few months ago that the league would like to expand east to be more attractive to future television deals could have some substance. How far east? San Marcos, Texas ... Memphis... Tampa .... West Point? Could mean something or absolutely nothing. If there is buzz about MWC for the Flames in some random conversations over the next few days, this would be the driver. But I findthis to be a highly unlikely scenario.
AAC
Let me be clear, this is purely speculation and there is a strong possibility that this could have no connection to reality. But this is where things could potentially get more interesting east of the Mississippi. If no one from the league ispached by either the Pac or MWC, then I don't see much happening here. But the likelihood that at least SMU and possibly as many as 5-6 other schools could get cherry-picked based on events above, it could get very interesting. Frankly I don't see this scenario playing out. But if it did, a much-depleted AAC would start to come into play for us. Why? Let's look at their potential candidates that could be poached without major economic impacts:
Army has declined a much healthier AAC lineup for decades. Even the potential slotting for 12-team playoff was not enough to entice them. So scratch West Point. Georgia State and Texas State are the most likely candidates. Both fit the large market/major enrollment profiles that AAC commish Arresco has favored in past expansions. It couldbe argued that both schools would probably feel better in the Belt at this stage. Texas State would likely be the first expansion choice for the MWC ... if they were interested. Knowing the culture of the Lone Star State, the Bobcats likely feel a much greater affinity toward being aligned with schools to the east as opposed to the west. Then what you have left are the northeastern indies and the rest of the CUSA pieces. Among the CUSA schools available, MTSU makes the most sense in the Nashville market with a track record of not being embarassing.
But then you look around and realize that in spite of not even technically having played a second in CUSA yet, that we might actually have the best facilities, resources and frankly functional setting for the AAC to plug and play ... anything is possible. Once again, we have at least turned the corner with new leadership in place for a full month. We have removed the stigma have finally been invited to an FBS league. We have demonstrtated our ability to compete on and off the field at that level. While I still believe it is unlikely at this moment in time for us to get the AAC call, it wouldnt be insanity from either the league or school's perspective.
- By aredd33
- By flamehunter