- January 30th, 2008, 10:42 pm
#151485
That's how you base a prediction and who is the better team. Does it make it set in stone that WU will win, of course not, but WU is the better team up until this point in the season.
Go to Ken Pom's site and read through the scouting report sections. He started that site b/c previously there was no way to predict outcomes and judge how good teams, players, were. He's been amazingly right when he predicts the course of a season for a certain team, a lot of the time he focuses on overblown records and top 25 rankings that result when a team's stats don't add up to the record or they have played a weak schedule. Almost in every instance, the teams trend back down to the norm for where they should be based on stats.
SuperJon wrote:He looks at numbers, not the fact that they beat VMI at home without Reggie by 40 and Asheville won in Lexington with Reggie playing.Of course you factor it in, but it's only one game and doesn't weigh heavily when looking at the entire season up until this point considering the team have played what, 20 games? You look at offensive and defensive efficiences as well as margin, and also look at the competition. Asheville has a slighty higher efficient offense, and WU has a much higher efficient defense. Plus, Winthrop has played a much tougher schedule. Asheville has faced an average team of efficiences in the 200's, WU has faced offenses with efficiences in the 80's, with the defense average around the same as Asheville.
That's how you base a prediction and who is the better team. Does it make it set in stone that WU will win, of course not, but WU is the better team up until this point in the season.
Go to Ken Pom's site and read through the scouting report sections. He started that site b/c previously there was no way to predict outcomes and judge how good teams, players, were. He's been amazingly right when he predicts the course of a season for a certain team, a lot of the time he focuses on overblown records and top 25 rankings that result when a team's stats don't add up to the record or they have played a weak schedule. Almost in every instance, the teams trend back down to the norm for where they should be based on stats.
- By LU Armchair coach